Michigan State Basketball: Path is clear to make NCAA Tournament

By Adam Zdroik | Jan 4, 2017

Dec 30, 2016; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans guard Cassius Winston (5) drives to the basket during the first half against the Northwestern Wildcats at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports /

It was only a couple of weeks ago that Michigan State basketball fans were worried about missing the tournament, but that’s no longer the case.

After two wins to open the Big Ten campaign, Michigan State basketball fans are feeling a little better about the team’s tournament chances as it’s in the middle of a four-game home stand. If all goes as planned, Michigan State will be 5-0 in conference play atop the standings when it travels to Ohio State on Jan. 15.

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So the question becomes, were Michigan State’s chances at reaching the NCAA Tournament ever in doubt?

At 8-5, things looked bleak, as the Spartans could’ve easily lost their first two conference games at Minnesota and against Northwestern. Instead, with Miles Bridges set to return Wednesday (albeit in a minimal role) against Rutgers, they have seemingly turned a corner.

To make matters better, the rest of the conference is busy beating up on each other with Indiana losing to Nebraska and Purdue falling to Minnesota, among other upsets.

Now, on to Michigan State’s potential seeding. Only a day before its win over Northwestern, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi had the Spartans as one of the last four in. There are a number of factors that suggest they should’ve never been on the same line as a team like Marquette, but I’ll get into that later.

As of Tuesday, Jan. 3, the Spartans were on average the final 10-seed at the Bracket Matrix (a compilation of every bracket prediction). For me, the Spartans are closer to a No. 7 seed with a bit of predictive analysis put into that number.

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A lot of people made the loss to Northeastern seem like the season-ender for Michigan State, but no one mentioned that the Huskies are actually a decent team. As of this writing, Northeastern was No. 89 in RPI and one of the favorites to win the CAA. As long as Northeastern finishes as a top-150 RPI team, that loss won’t be monumental to State’s tourney hopes. Keep in mind the Committee will take into account the absence of Bridges, their best player, in the defeat.

Going forward, to get a seven-seed, at minimum, Michigan State would ideally need to reach at least 20 wins. Last season, teams like Texas, Oregon State and Iowa were six or seven-seeds with between 19 and 21 wins.

Already with 10 wins, Michigan State will be favored in seven more home games at the least: Rutgers, Penn State, Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State and Nebraska. Then there are also winnable road games at Ohio State, Nebraska, Michigan, Illinois and Maryland as well as the Big Ten Tournament. Even if they get swept by Purdue and lose to Wisconsin in East Lansing, 20 wins is still a decent possibility.

If Michigan State can’t reach 20 wins, it would be somewhat surprising, although as said above, there doesn’t seem to be many easy matchups in conference play this season. But even if they only get to 17 or 18 wins, a tournament bid will be waiting for them without any truly bad losses. The Big Ten is better from top-to-bottom than previous years and that will only help.

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While most brackets have Michigan State as a double-digit seed, the path is there for a six or seven-seed as long as they don’t get worse once Bridges returns.

Despite some rough stretches early on, this doesn’t look to be a lost season after all. Then again, losing at home to a team like Rutgers or Penn State could easily change that outlook and it’s well known that MSU always struggles against Nebraska.

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