Michigan State may have toughest road to top 4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament

Sunday’s Ohio State game was supposed to be the second-easiest game remaining for Michigan State basketball. The Buckeyes were down two of their top three scorers and they had to visit East Lansing for the final game of the full Izzone.

The Buckeyes put up quite the fight and nearly pulled off the upset in East Lansing, but a late surge by the mostly-healthy Spartans took the lead back for good.

Michigan State held on for the win, 66-60, to improve to 22-5 on the season.

The play was a little worrisome because Michigan State once again played down to its competition. That’s been a theme of the Spartans for years, and this was no exception. The Spartans had one of their worst shooting games of the season and had to grind out a win over a team that had no business even being in the game in the final minutes.

There’s really only one “gimme” left on the schedule for Michigan State and even Rutgers gave the Spartans problems earlier this season, taking them to overtime.

Tom Izzo and the Spartans could still earn a top four seed and a triple-bye in the Big Ten Tournament, but they may have the toughest remaining road of the top seven contenders.

Michigan State’s remaining road compared to other contenders

Glenn Kinley on X put together a list of the Big Ten’s top contenders with a shot at a top four seed in the Big Ten Tournament still, and he listed each team’s remaining games.

Michigan State may just have the toughest road.

Michigan has the 1-seed pretty much locked up unless it loses out. The Wolverines can win at least a share of the Big Ten title with a win over Minnesota this week. They also have to go to Illinois and Iowa before hosting Michigan State. Tough schedule for sure, but their lead is so big it won’t matter.

Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and UCLA will all be fighting for that triple-bye in the top four seeds — really just seeds 2-4 with Michigan taking the 1.

Illinois has to host Michigan and Oregon before going to Maryland. That may be the easiest road of the top teams in the conference. Illinois likely has a top-four seed locked up.

Purdue has to host Michigan State, go to Ohio State and Northwestern, and then host Wisconsin to close the year. A tough stretch for sure, but I’d be surprised if the Boilermakers don’t go at least 3-1.

Nebraska hosts Maryland before a West Coast trip against UCLA and USC which could result in at least one loss before returning home to finish the year with Iowa. The Cornhuskers have a decently-tough road, but not one that they can’t finish 4-0.

Wisconsin also has a West Coast trip approaching, facing Oregon and Washington on the road over the next two games. The Badgers then return home to face Maryland before closing the season at Mackey Arena against Purdue. I think 2-2 or 3-1 is likely and I see the Badgers remaining behind MSU.

Lastly, UCLA has USC at home before going to Minnesota, hosting Nebraska, and then going across town to face USC on the road. There’s a very good chance that the Bruins go 4-0.

I think Michigan State snatches a top four seed if it can beat Indiana and Rutgers and then steal one agains Purdue or Michigan. A 3-1 finish not only captures a top four seed, but likely puts MSU in the 2/3-seed range.

Michigan State has arguably the toughest road left. We’ll see if the Spartans show up.