Michigan State bracketology update: Where the Spartans stand after UCLA win

Michigan State's Jaxon Kohler, left, celebrates after making a 3-pointer against UCLA as the Bruins Xavier Booker, right, looks on during the first half on Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing.
Michigan State's Jaxon Kohler, left, celebrates after making a 3-pointer against UCLA as the Bruins Xavier Booker, right, looks on during the first half on Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It’s mid-February, so that means that Michigan State basketball fans will soon be nervously watching the Spartans take in yet another NCAA Tournament.

Michigan State hasn’t missed the NCAA Tournament in decades under Tom Izzo, and the Spartans will make yet another one after a 21-5 start to the season. A year ago, the Spartans were fighting for their first Big Ten title since Cassius Winston was manning the point guard position; now they’re in distant third place with just about no chance to catch up to Michigan in the standings.

The Spartans have hit their annual February rough patch, and fans are hoping that they’re on the other side of that stretch now. It was a tough one this year with Michigan State losing 3-of-4 games and nearly dropping two more with overtime wins over Illinois and Rutgers.

This recent stretch has absolutely impacted Michigan State’s seeding, but a UCLA blowout may have redeemed it just slightly.

Where everyone has Michigan State seeded

Not every bracketology expert updates their projections every week, but a handful of outlets have been pretty consistent and there has been some movement by the Spartans.

These four outlets all updated their bracketology this week:

Joe Lunardi: 3-seed
On3: 4-seed
CBS Sports: 4-seed
Hoops HQ: 4-seed

Joe Lunardi is the most notable one here because he actually moved Michigan State back up to the 3-seed line after beating UCLA and watching some previously projected top-four seeds drop games this week.

Michigan State has a chance to move up to a 2-seed if it can take care of Ohio State and then translate that into a Purdue win in West Lafayette. I think that if Michigan State can win the next four games before facing Michigan, a 2-seed is almost a lock. That’s a big ask with Purdue and Indiana road games approaching.

There’s a lot of work to do, but I trust Izzo always, but especially this time of year.

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