Michigan State is currently projected to be a 3-seed, depending on where you look, in the upcoming NCAA Tournament, and there have even been some outlets projecting the Spartans as a 4-seed.
It’s good to have this problem rather than worrying about if the team will make the NCAA Tournament like Spartan fans had to sweat out in 2021 and 2022. It’s a good feeling knowing that Michigan State will be safely in the NCAA Tournament field again.
Where Michigan State will be seeded is a different story. A few weeks ago, Michigan State was on the verge of a 1-seed but then the Michigan loss happened and that snowballed into losses to Minnesota and Wisconsin. That knocked Michigan State off the 2-line and now the Spartans are fighting to get back to a top two seed.
How can Michigan State get back to that 2-line? I’ve mapped out the path.
How Michigan State can be a 2-seed
Earning a 2-seed comes with mixed emotions for Michigan State fans seeing as they earned one back in 2015-16 before losing in the first round to 15th-seeded Middle Tennessee. The last two times that Michigan State earned a 2-seed, it made it to the Final Four (2019) and the Elite Eight (2025).
Before the 2016 debacle, Michigan State was a 2-seed in 1979 (won the national title) and 2009 (made it to the title game). So 80 percent of the time that Michigan State has been a 2-seed, it’s made it to the Elite Eight — at least. There has been a different outcome every single time: first-round upset, Elite Eight, Final Four, national title loss, and national title win.
Getting a 2-seed would be an ideal scenario for Michigan State, especially after the past few weeks.
What needs to happen?
I don’t think Michigan State needs to win out necessarily, but it probably needs to go 4-1 in its last five games and win 1-2 games in the Big Ten Tournament. To be safe, making it to the Big Ten title game would likely sew up a 2-seed.
It’s not all on Michigan State, though. The Spartans will need help from projected 2-seeds like Illinois, Purdue, Iowa State, and UConn. Seeing a couple of those teams lose 1-2 more games would open up a spot or two on that line. Michigan State also needs to have more impressive wins than Florida, Texas Tech, Kansas, and Gonzaga over the final three weeks. Considering who Michigan State still has a chance to beat, a 4-1 finish would likely secure that.
A 2-seed is within reach, but we’ll need to see a run like the one we saw at the end of last season.