There’s been some chaos running through college basketball lately and Joe Lunardi is all over it. The ESPN bracketologist is one of the most respected in his field, and he’s been monitoring Michigan State’s seeding a little closer lately.
Before the Rutgers game, Michigan State was locked in as a 2-seed with an outsider’s chance at a 1-seed if the Spartans were able to take care of Michigan at home. If the Spartans hadn’t lost to Michigan, who knows what the record would look like, but I’d be willing to bet that Minnesota loss doesn’t happen either and they’re more prepared for Wisconsin.
Let’s not play the what if game, though.
They were unable to protect home court against Michigan, then they lost to Minnesota, and then the Spartans got blown out by Wisconsin a week after beating No. 5 Illinois.
After some recent chaos, however, Lunardi has Michigan State moving up. He’s had Michigan State as a 4-seed since that Wisconsin loss but it looks like the Spartans are back in his good graces — for now.
3-seeds: Purdue, Kansas, Michigan St, Nebraska
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) February 19, 2026
Michigan State will have several chances to not only solidify this 3-seed, but get up to a 2-seed before the NCAA Tournament tips off.
Michigan State is not lacking opportunity
The schedule has set up interestingly for Michigan State. The Spartans sit as a 3-seed, per Lunardi, and Tom Izzo knows he has everything set up for him to earn a 2-seed.
While a 1-seed is likely out of the picture, I suppose it’s not impossible for Michigan State to make that jump if it wins out. The Spartans would close the regular season at 26-5 with wins at Michigan, at Indiana, and at Purdue in the final four games. You’d think that might force the committee’s hand a little bit and bump the Spartans into the 1-seed conversation.
Again, that’s a lot of “what if” talking. Michigan State has to go out and get it done.
Michigan State get an opportunity to add a solid home win to the resume on Sunday against Ohio State before going to West Lafayette to play at the house of horrors that is Mackey Arena against Purdue. The Boilermakers have looked very beatable this season, but it’s never an easy game for Michigan State. The Spartans haven’t won there since 2014.
They’ll then go to Indiana before hosting Rutgers and then finishing the season in Ann Arbor against the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines. The opportunity is there, but this team just has to lock in like last year’s did after that Indiana loss at home.