Joe Lunardi updates Michigan State’s NCAAT seed projection after Michigan loss

From left, Michigan State's Jeremy Fears Jr., Divine Ugochukwu and Jaxon Kohler leave the court after the Spartans loss to Michigan on Friday, Jan. 30, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing.
From left, Michigan State's Jeremy Fears Jr., Divine Ugochukwu and Jaxon Kohler leave the court after the Spartans loss to Michigan on Friday, Jan. 30, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Michigan State’s performance against Michigan on Friday night was forgettable outside of a 13-minute stretch to begin the second half where the Spartans erased a 16-point halftime deficit to actually take a lead with seven minutes left.

Unfortunately, that momentum was quickly erased, and a dagger 3-pointer by Elliot Cadeau with three minutes left essentially sealed the game.

Michigan State didn’t play like the No. 7 team in the country against Michigan, leading to a double-digit loss on Tom Izzo’s 71st birthday. The team was out-toughed, out-coached, and out-played for about 70 percent of the game, but at least it never gave up, putting together a run in the second half that had to make Izzo proud.

It just wasn’t enough.

Michigan State lost out on an opportunity to add a Q1A win which has been a knock against the Spartans for weeks now. This was a prime opportunity.

Now, the Spartans are trending in the wrong direction in the latest bracketology.

Michigan State drops in the latest NCAA Tournament bracketology

After getting bumped up to a 2-seed in this week’s bracketology after six straight double-digit wins in Big Ten play, Joe Lunardi wasted no time dropping Michigan State a bit after the Michigan loss.

The Spartans were the third No. 2 seed in the bracketology to begin the week, but now they’re the second three seed, dropping from No. 7 overall to No. 10. It’s a justified drop.

With the win, Michigan remains on the 1-seed line, and it has to strengthen the Wolverines’ case to lock up a top two seed with two top-10 victories in one week. The Breslin Center is one of the toughest places to play in the country and the Wolverines were unfazed. They played a much tougher brand of basketball than anyone — even their own fans — expected.

Michigan State is now 19-3 on the season, facing a really tough upcoming stretch against Minnesota this coming week and Illinois will come to East Lansing on Saturday for another big showdown.

No one can be too upset by this slight drop in the rankings. The Spartans didn’t play like a 2-seed against Michigan — that needs to be corrected.

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