For the first time since 2019-20, Michigan State basketball is in the middle of a Big Ten title race near the end of February within striking distance of first place and in control of its own destiny.
Michigan State has five games left and all but one is against a ranked opponent. To say the remaining road is going to be difficult would be an understatement. But the Spartans have shown that they can be one of the best teams not just in the Big Ten, but in the country, beating Illinois on the road on Saturday and then coming home to handle Purdue.
With the two wins, Michigan State is now 12-3 in the Big Ten and 21-5 overall.
Its next opponent, Michigan, is 12-2 in the Big Ten and 20-5 overall and with a win over the Spartans on Friday night, the Wolverines would be in the driver's seat in the Big Ten with a healthy advantage and just five games left.
So the question arises, what is a realistic "magic number" for the Spartans if they want to win the Big Ten? In case you don't know what a "magic number" is, it's basically the number of wins in order to accomplish a feat. In Michigan's case, their magic number would be five in order to at least earn a split of the conference title.
Since Michigan State is 0.5 games behind the Wolverines, there is no true "magic number" but the finish I think the Spartans would need would be a 4-1 record.
Michigan still has to go to Nebraska, host Rutgers, Illinois, and Maryland, and then go to East Lansing to face Michigan State. At best, I think Michigan goes 5-1 in that stretch with a split with the Spartans. At worst, I think Michigan could get swept by Michigan State and lose to one of either Illinois or Maryland. That would make for a 3-3 finish and a worst-case scenario.
Let's say Michigan goes somewhere in the middle (4-2), Michigan State would need to split with the Wolverines and hope for a Maryland or Illinois win in Ann Arbor. Both would be nice.
That would mean Michigan State needs to go 4-1 from here on out with just one loss to Michigan. A Big Ten title would still be very possible even with a loss on Friday, but having to go to Maryland and Iowa still, Michigan State would have to go a perfect 4-0 the rest of the way.
Win on Friday, and that magic number drops to three with another against Michigan ensuring a Big Ten title. Lose on Friday, and that number is four.
Let's not chance it and just win out and win the conference outright, shall we?