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Updated Final Four odds show that Vegas doesn’t believe in Tom Izzo

Right where Tom Izzo wants to be.
Mar 21, 2026; Buffalo, NY, USA; Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo reacts in the first half against the Louisville Cardinals during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images
Mar 21, 2026; Buffalo, NY, USA; Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo reacts in the first half against the Louisville Cardinals during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

If there’s ever a place where Tom Izzo wants to be, it’s right where he currently is: overlooked by just about everyone entering a Sweet 16 matchup with UConn.

The Spartans were ranked the 16th-best team in the remaining field of 16 earlier this week by former Alabama and NBA head coach Avery Johnson. His reasoning wasn’t clear, but it seemed like he hadn’t watched too much Michigan State basketball.

Vegas, on the other hand, has. And it’s not too high on Izzo and the Spartans.

In fact, Michigan State has just the ninth-best odds (+470), per FanDuel, to make a Final Four out of the 16 remaining teams, sitting behind teams like Illinois and Purdue who the Spartans beat this year.

Once again, Michigan State is going to have to scratch and claw for respect.

Tom Izzo loves the underdog role

Michigan State’s legendary head coach is used to being the underdog, and it feels like his teams always do better when that’s the case. Far too often, Michigan State has been considered a favorite and it’s fallen way short of expectations (the 2010-11, 2015-16, and 2023-24 teams come to mind).

Just like last year, there weren’t too many people picking Michigan State to make much noise in the regular season and I even saw some opposing fans predict that the Spartans would have their NCAA Tournament streak snapped. There were a lot of college basketball hot takes last offseason and that was one of them.

Despite losing several starters and key role players from a Big Ten title team, Izzo and the Spartans still found a way to win 25 regular-season games and make the NCAA Tournament as a 3-seed.

This has been one of Izzo’s best coaching jobs to date, following up last year’s masterpiece. The Spartans will now get a chance to prove everyone wrong once again (just like 2019) and win the toughest region in the tournament and make another Final Four.

This time, let’s hope he finishes it off with a title.

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