Tom Izzo’s teams don’t necessarily want to get into track meets every night, but just because they don’t play at a blistering pace doesn’t mean the Spartans don’t thrive in transition. Despite ranking 264th in KenPom adjusted tempo, 21.3 percent of Michigan State’s points come on the fast break (99th percentile nationally), and it’s shooting 67.3 percent in transition (97th percentile).
On Thursday night, coming off back-to-back wins over UCLA and Ohio State, No. 13 Michigan State heads to West Lafayette, Indiana, for a clash of Big Ten titans with No. 8 Purdue. It sets up as more of a slugfest than a track meet, and Izzo is typically comfortable trading blows, but if the Spartans let All-American point guard Braden Smith and the Boilermakers dictate the pace in Mackey Arena, they’ll be in trouble.
Tom Izzo can't afford to trade possessions with Purdue in the half-court
While Michigan State plays at a slow pace, the Boilermakers are even slower; 298th in KenPom adjusted tempo. With Smith’s deliberate, probing style of offensive attack, and a massive front court with Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff, Purdue lives in the half-court, attempting 84.5 percent of its shots out of half-court possessions and managing a 99th percentile field goal percentage of 48.6 percent.
Michigan State is not nearly as efficient with those possessions. Jeremy Fears Jr. is one of the few point guards in the country capable of going toe-to-toe with Smith, but the ancillary pieces on Michigan State’s roster aren’t assembled for half-court efficiency. Contrary to Matt Painter’s vision, Izzo prioritizes athleticism and physicality to dominate the boards, create turnovers, and score in transition.
Purdue is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country. With Fletcher Loyer running off screens for open jump shots, and Kaufman-Renn hitting push shots in the paint off the short-roll, and even Cluff in the post, the Boilermakers have too many options to get a bucket when the game slows down. So, Izzo’s team needs to run, and the numbers bear that out.
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That’s why it’s paramount that Michigan State dictates a faster pace against Purdue, which is allowing just 6.9 fast break points per game this season and only 5.4 fast break points per game over its last five. That’s partially because they play such a controlled style and make so many shots, and it’s hard to push off a make, but it’s also because, with Smith running things, Purdue has a 97th percentile 11.8 percent turnover rate.
There won’t be many live-ball turnovers for the Spartans to turn into a Fears layup or a Coen Carr dunk the other way, so they have to be intentional about running off every miss, pushing off makes, and pushing the tempo every chance they get. If they don’t, Purdue will hand Michigan State its fifth conference loss of the year and likely outside the top four, which is where you need to be to earn a triple-bye in the first 18-team Big Ten tournament this year.