The 2024-25 season has gone much better than Michigan State basketball fans had expected. The Spartans came into the year unranked and kind of teetering on the edge of relevance after four straight disappointing seasons that produced just one Sweet 16.
The last Final Four for this program was actually 2018-19 when Cassius Winston and Xavier Tillman helped engineer a win over the most loaded Duke team potentially ever.
Tom Izzo was being criticized for losing touch with the game and it was a major reason why the Spartans were fighting to get into the NCAA Tournament from 2021-2024 instead of fighting for a top-three seed. The feeling surrounding the program after last season's loss to North Carolina was not great, but Izzo vowed to get back to deep runs in March or to die trying.
It looks like he's keeping true to his word so far.
Michigan State is 18-2 on the season and 9-0 in the Big Ten. And I'd be willing to bet that if the Spartans got rematches with their two losses (Kansas and Memphis), they win.
Starting 9-0 in conference play is far from an easy feat, however. The Big Ten is the deepest it's been in a while with teams like Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Maryland, Wisconsin, UCLA, and Oregon all fighting for the conference crown. Unfortunately, Michigan State has only played one of those teams.
The Spartans beat Illinois last week and they've had the easiest schedule so far in conference play, per KenPom. That means that a gauntlet is approaching.
Should we be worried?
It's a fair question, but I don't think so. If Michigan State had barely been skating by against these teams that it should've beaten in the first half of Big Ten play, I'd say yes, the Spartans should be worried, but they beat Minnesota twice by an average of 20 points, Washington by 34, Nebraska by 37, Rutgers should've been a 10-point win, Ohio State should've been a double-digit win on the road, and Northwestern was a double-digit road win.
The Spartans are handling the teams they're supposed to. Now they get to gear up for stiffer competition which begins on Saturday evening at USC.
Realistically, all Michigan State needs to do in the final 11 conference games is go something like 8-3 or 7-4 and it will likely win the Big Ten. And with five home games remaining along with six road games, winning all the matchups at Breslin and half of the road games should make for a Big Ten title team. Heck, even winning all the home games and going 2-4 on the road should work.
The remaining schedule is tough with USC and UCLA on the road in back-to-back games, but coming home to play a couple of beatable (but solid) opponents in Oregon and Indiana before going to Illinois should help conjure up some confidence heading into a huge road game.
If the Spartans beat Illinois in the rematch, I'd fully expect them to handle No. 10 Purdue at home and split the Michigan and Maryland road games. There's also a very good chance Michigan State goes 3-0 in the final three games against Wisconsin, at Iowa, and versus Michigan.
Michigan State just needs to win the home games (doable) and split the road games and the Big Ten champion will be back in East Lansing.