Predicting the rest of the Michigan State football season
This Michigan State football season has felt like a roller coaster for most.
While, from a bird's eye view, this season has been most of what we expected before the season started, it felt like this team has left some meat on the bone in terms of the win column and what they're getting out of a few position groups.
To this point, the Spartans sit at 4-5 and 11th in the revamped Big Ten. For the most part, they've taken care of the teams they were expected to, including all but one non-conference opponent, Maryland, and a big win over Iowa. They have managed to keep losses not to Top 25 teams within one score, including a four-point loss to Boston College and a seven-point defeat to the team down the road.
A bowl game is still within reach, but there is little margin for error heading into the seventh inning stretch of the 2024 season. The bad news is they can only afford one more slip up over these last three games. The good news is the remaining teams currently have a combined record of 11-14, those being no-longer-ranked Illinois, Purdue, and Rutgers. All very winnable games.
Let's get into the predictions.
Nov. 16: Michigan State at Illinois
Easily the most difficult game on paper left for the Spartans, this is the game they can use their last slip-up on. While Illinois is a solid team, they have shown very recently that they are very beatable.
However, with uncertainty surrounding the availability of key starters quarterback Aidan Chiles, cornerback Charles Brantley, and safety Malik Spencer, those chances of an upset shrink. Luckily, none of these injuries are expected to be season-ending, and head coach Jonathan Smith is confident at least Chiles won't miss time.
Despite the good news, I will stay conservative and expect the Spartans to lose a close game on the road.
Prediction: MSU 17, Illinois 21
Nov. 22: Michigan State vs. Purdue
The Spartans are on the ropes in this situation at a projected 4-6 record. They get to finish out the season at home, potentially securing a bowl game in front of their fans with wins this week and next. With sustained injuries to the previously mentioned key starters now three weeks behind us, the Spartans take advantage of one of the more underwhelming teams in the conference to get back in the win column and potentially become bowl eligible in the final week of the regular season.
Prediction: Purdue 10, MSU 27
Nov. 30: Michigan State vs. Rutgers
With a bowl game appearance on the line, expect Sparty to pull out everything they have to secure a spot in December football. Something to note, don't expect Rutgers to go down easy, because they very well could be fighting for a spot as well, currently sitting at 4-4 on the season.
It should be a close game to the wire, but I expect a win similar to most of this year, riding on the back of an excellent kicking performance from Jonathan Kim, with the defense doing enough to fend off the Scarlet Knights.
Prediction: Rutgers 17, MSU 19
Bowl projection: Guaranteed Rate Bowl vs. TCU
I am no expert myself in projecting bowl games, so I defer this selection to the most recent edition of Bleacher Report's bowl season projection for this matchup. They currently project Michigan State to meet TCU in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl on Dec. 26.
TCU is having a fine year, currently sitting on the brink of bowl eligibility at 5-4. The Horned Frogs are led by sophomore standout quarterback Josh Hoover, who is having an excellent season, leading the TCU offense to over 32 points per game thus far.
The defense for TCU has been its limitation this season, allowing almost 29 points per game.
This matchup would be very intriguing, given each team's opposite qualities. The MSU defense has struggled recently against capable quarterbacks, which lead me to believe this game could get out of hand if the offense struggles early. I expect a competitive game, but TCU pulling away in the end.
Prediction: MSU 23, TCU 33