Thoughts on taking the over on Michigan State football's win total for 2024

Aidan Chiles spoke to the media on Thursday evening after Michigan State football practice and updated everyone on the state of the team and the outlook for the 2024 season.

We know Chiles to be a confident person but I doubt anyone really expected him to say what he did when asked about the confidence of the team heading into the opener against FAU. He told everyone to "take the over" for Michigan State.

Many thought he meant the point total for the opener against the Owls, but he was actually referring to the season win total according to Vegas. Basically every major sportsbook has the Spartans sitting at 4.5 wins as the over/under which seems low to me considering Michigan State has averaged 4.5 wins over the past two years with worse coaching and less talented rosters.

Chiles' confidence feels warranted. He has seen the team partake in practice all offseason and he knows what kind of talent the the Spartans have so he was confident enough to tell bettors to "take the over" this season.

Do we do it?

Honestly, I'm all in on the over. Even if the over boosts to 5.5 wins before the season kicks off, I'm taking that. This team is good enough to make a bowl game even if it's just barely.

Looking at the schedule, Michigan State should start the season 3-1, at least. The Spartans could even start 4-0 if they shock Maryland on the road which feels possible now that Taulia Tagovailoa is gone. The Terrapins have never really been known for defense.

So if Michigan State is 3-1 or 4-0, it would need to go just 3-5 or 2-6 in the final eight games to break the over. If the over is still at 4.5, it's that much more of a lock, in my opinion.

So yes, we take the over here, especially if it's at 4.5.