It feels like we’ve rinsed and repeated this exact same story every offseason since 2022, but Michigan State is once again projected to be one of the worst teams in the Big Ten in 2026.
Year one of Pat Fitzgerald is drawing some excitement from the fanbase, but Vegas has been quick to shut that down and spit out some disrespectful win totals for the 2026 season.
It’s weird to see Indiana at the top of the conference, but the reigning national champs deserve it. The Hoosiers are up there with the usual suspects like Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State, USC, and Michigan. Michigan State? Well, the Spartans are right at the bottom.
OK, maybe not right at the bottom, but bottom-adjacent.
NEW: 2026 College Football Big Ten Win Totals via @BetMGM🔥
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The only team in the 18-team league projected to finish with fewer wins than a Fitzgerald-led Michigan State football team this season is Purdue. That’s apparently how far the program has fallen under Mel Tucker and Jonathan Smith. Things have gotten so bad that Vegas looks at Michigan State the same way it looks at Rutgers, Maryland, and even lesser than Northwestern.
The Spartans are now in the bottom tier of the conference and unless Fitzgerald lives up to his promises, that’s just the new norm.
I expect Michigan State to exceed expectations and make a bowl game this season. Will I sprinkle some money on a Michigan State over 4.5 wins bet? I plead the fifth.
Michigan State is being a little overlooked
Although I do understand why Vegas is hesitant to buy into a new era of Michigan State football under a head coach who hasn’t coached an NCAA game in three years, Fitzgerald has proven enough over his career to get at least a sliver of respect.
Instead, Vegas believes that the one-time NFL coaching target who claims to be more motivated than ever is going to miss a bowl game.
The Spartans are being overlooked because they have a returning QB1 who flashed potential at the end of last season, they have a really strong receiving corps, the offensive line is projected to break out, Jordan Hall is one of the best linebackers in the country, and the incoming recruiting and transfer class should provide Fitzgerald several starters on both sides of the ball.
Is this a team that misses a bowl game? I guess anything is possible, but I just a motivated and energetic coach having a ton more success than what the Spartans have had for the past four years.
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