Michigan State will end bowl drought in 2026, popular CFB account agrees

A four-year bowl drought is something that Michigan State football hasn’t experienced since the 1980s. That’s right, your Michigan Wolverine neighbor might troll you about how Spartan football has always been bad, but Michigan State’s longest bowl drought was three years under John L. Smith from 2004-06.

And we all know what happened there.

Since then, Michigan State has missed a total of just six bowls and four of them have come in the past four consecutive seasons. That’s pretty consistent for a program that often gets treated as second fiddle in its own state but Spartan football has a storied history.

Vegas, however, believes that the Spartans’ bowl drought is going to extend to five seasons in 2026. The odds are not in Michigan State’s favor as an early over/under was set at 4.5 wins.

I’m smashing the over.

A popular college football account, CFB Home, on Twitter agrees with me. The respected account predicted that Michigan State will finish 6-6 with a 4-5 Big Ten record which means it’ll tie for 11th.

I’ll take it.

I agree with a lot of the wins that CFB Home predicted like Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Illinois, Northwestern, and Rutgers, but it went out on a limb and predicted a win at Wisconsin. While the Badgers have been bad under Luke Fickell, Camp Randall is a nightmare and I just don’t see that.

Instead of the win at Wisconsin, I think Michigan State takes out Nebraska at home.

I could also see a win at UCLA and a victory over Washington but both teams are going to be vastly improved this season compared to 2025. I’m going to agree with the 6-6 projected record.

Michigan State’s best-case scenario is attainable

The absolute best-case scenario for any college football team is obviously 12-0 but I’m talking about more of a realistic best-case. In that scenario, Michigan State wins 7-8 games and pulls off a couple of upsets, including one at Michigan.

I honestly think this is attainable.

Michigan State is bringing back its QB1 and it brings in one of the best running backs from the transfer portal to lead the backfield. The offensive line should be better and while the receivers and tight ends are unproven, the talent and potential there can’t be denied. The defense might be shaky early on in the Pat Fitzgerald era, but it was shaky the last time MSU made a bowl game and the Spartans still won 11 games.

I’m not here to predict an 11-2 season in Fitzgerald’s first year — that’ll be saved for Year 2 obviously — but I do think that 7-8 wins are attainable. These games could all go Michigan State’s way:

• Toledo
• Eastern Michigan
• Nebraska
• at Wisconsin
• Illinois
• Northwestern
• at UCLA
• at Michigan
• Washington
• at Rutgers

If Michigan State wins the games that it should win (Toledo, EMU) and just goes 4-4 or 5-3 in the rest of the eight winnable games, it’s going bowling.

Projecting a six or seven-win Michigan State football season shouldn’t be crazy anymore.

Coach Fitzgerald, if you hear this, please save us.

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