Tom Izzo doesn’t chase trends in college basketball. More than maybe any coach in the sport, he has stuck to his roster-building philosophy in the face of massive changes. Still, just because he isn’t going to chase the new wave doesn’t mean he won’t feel the effects of it.
Izzo will never embrace the Transfer Portal as his primary means of talent acquisition. Yet, last offseason, he made three additions, and with Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper finally aging out, and no clear replacement ready in the pipeline, he’ll likely be looking to pick up a starting center for next year’s roster.
History has proven that plugging holes just like that is probably the best way to use the portal to build a championship team, rather than embracing the volatility that comes when you turn over the roster every year. Center is just going to be a particularly expensive hole to fill this cycle.
It’s not a good year to need a center in the Transfer Portal
The Transfer Portal opens on Tuesday, April 7, and when it does, there’s almost certainly going to be a run on bigs. Todd Golden won a title with his massive front court at Florida last year, and this season, Dusty May’s three-big lineup carried him to the Final Four to play an Arizona team that’s as big as any program in the country. Then, on the other side, Tarris Reed Jr. is putting up Bill Walton-esque numbers for UConn, and Illinois is chock-full of seven-footers, Brad Underwood important from the Balkans.
A few years ago, the ethos in college basketball was to play an up-tempo five-out style and shoot a lot of threes. However, the top programs realized that play-style massively increases variance and levels the playing field for smaller programs, especially in the single-elimination chaos of the NCAA Tournament.
Now, rim dominance is the name of the game. Rather than shooting the most threes, the goal is to get the most easy shots with bigs who can attack the paint and control the boards. Arizona has all but shunned the three, shooting it at the third-lowest rate in Division I. Yet, the Wildcats are 36-2, and two wins away from raising a banner in Tucson.
So, bigs have flooded the portal market, in anticipation of a huge payday, and while the supply is high, the demand is still higher. Players 6-foot-9 and up, especially ones who can pass, playmake, and shoot, along with rebounding and defending the rim, will be at a premium, which will drive the price up for Izzo to fill the void left by Kohler and Cooper.
Michigan State won’t need a massive spending spree in the portal, so the Spartans should be able to afford a top center. However, there’s always a trickle-down effect on the rest of the roster when you’re forced to pay market value or above to fill a hole.
Izzo’s retention rate is always high. So Jeremy Fears Jr. and Coen Carr should be back, along with most of the key pieces from last season’s roster. However, a big-money deal to a center could shake some of Michigan State’s depth free, or hurt next year’s recruiting class after the Spartans landed the No. 2 class in the country in 2026.