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Michigan State football has the same odds to make the playoff as Clemson, Florida

ByConnor Muldowney|
Sep 20, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Michigan State Spartans wide receiver Chrishon McCray (13) celebrates his touchdown scored against the against the Southern California Trojans with linebacker Marcellius Pulliam (4) during the first half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
Sep 20, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Michigan State Spartans wide receiver Chrishon McCray (13) celebrates his touchdown scored against the against the Southern California Trojans with linebacker Marcellius Pulliam (4) during the first half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Through four weeks, it's hard to really get a gauge on Michigan State football.

The Spartans are 3-1 and beat Boston College in Week 2, but that same Eagles team lost to Stanford and doesn't look that great this year. They then gave up 24 points to Youngstown State before losing in a shootout to USC. The defense isn't good, but the offense has been fun to watch.

Michigan State is considered a fringe top-10 team in the Big Ten, but we still need to see a lot more from the Spartans before we can declare that. A win at Nebraska would certainly help.

Well, ESPN's FPI not only listed its top teams in the Big Ten, but it also listed playoff chances for the top 68 teams in college football. Unfortunately, the Spartans are tied for last in that grouping, but they have the same chance to make the College Football Playoff as Clemson and Florida.

(Insert sarcastic Homer Simpson woo-hoo GIF here)

But seriously, while that's truly not anything to brag about, it does show that Michigan State isn't all that far behind presumed Big Ten contenders like Illinois (2.4%) and Nebraska (9.4%). The Spartans are also just behind two Big Ten teams that have gotten off to strong starts in Iowa (1.6%) and Maryland (1.3%). At least Michigan State is listed.

Michigan State is the 12th-best team in the Big Ten, per ESPN's FPI, and that's not exactly where fans want Jonathan Smith's team to be four games into year two, but we'll see what he can do after the bye.

Also, no one is saying Michigan State is going to make the playoff, but it's interesting to see what realm of teams ESPN compares it to.

Come out of the bye and beat Nebraska, and everyone is going to be buying MSU stock.

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