It might be difficult to believe, but Michigan State basketball is not out of the running for the final 1-seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Tom Izzo has only secured four 1-seeds in his entire tenure, and the last was all the way back in 2012. It’s been a while since Michigan State earned a 1-seed, and it’s almost impossible to think that this year’s team could be the first in almost 15 years to be atop their region.
Jeremy Fears, Coen Carr, Jaxon Kohler, and Carson Cooper have been an impressive “big four” for the Spartans and they’re going to have a real shot at a national title next over the next few weeks. The Spartans are going to be one of the favorites to win it all, and getting a 1-seed could give them just the advantage that they need.
Getting that final 1-seed won’t be easy, however.
How Michigan State can steal that final 1-seed
The million-dollar question is ‘how can the Spartans earn that last one seed?’ and there’s a fairly simple answer, but it’s not an easy task for Izzo and Michigan State.
First of all, Michigan State will likely need to win the Big Ten Tournament (though I don’t truly believe the selection committee actually weighs the championship much heavier than making it there). The Spartans will need to at least get to the title game, but probably win it if they even want to be considered.
The next three things that must happen, in order of importance, are as follows:
- Florida must lose its first SEC Tournament game to either Kentucky or Missouri on Friday. If the Gators drop their first game in the conference tournament, that might just drop them to “maybe” on the 1-seed line after seemingly locking it up with UConn losing at the end of the regular season. If the Gators lose to either Missouri or Kentucky, especially by like 10-plus, I like the Gators to temporarily surrender that top spot.
- Houston must also lose its first Big 12 Tournament game on Thursday night to BYU in the quarterfinals. That’s not going to be an easy game for Houston, even though BYU is without one of its stars for the remainder of the year. If the Cougars lose to BYU on Thursday, I think they drop a spot or two below MSU.
- UConn needs to lose before the Big East Championship. The Huskies have not been valued highly lately in bracketology because of their lack of elite wins, but if they win the Big East Tournament, that’ll likely mean a win over a red-hot St. John’s team and that would keep them ahead of Michigan State, even if the Spartans won the Big Ten Tournament. UConn losing to Xavier on Thursday night would end all talk of the Huskies getting a 1-seed.
It’s not likely, but those three things must happen if Michigan State wants to steal that last 1-seed which would have been unthinkable a month ago.