Joe Lunardi is one of the most respected NCAA Tournament experts in the game. The ESPN bracketologist has taken his game to the next level, releasing a new bracket projection every Tuesday, and he hasn’t had a ton of misses so far. Well, unless you ask Michigan State basketball fans.
Lunardi had Michigan State dropped to a 4-seed in his bracketology projections last week, which was right after the Spartans had beaten USC and Northwestern by double figures.
After picking up two more double-digit wins over Big Ten opponents, one coming on the road, Lunardi surely had to make amends with Michigan State fans, right?
Well, following the Spartans’ 21-point win over Indiana and 17-point victory at Washington, Lunardi has made things right (to an extent), putting Michigan State back on the 3-seed line.
According to his latest bracketology, as of Tuesday afternoon, Michigan State is projected as a 3-seed in the West Region which is a very winnable bracket. The Spartans are projected to face 14-seed Portland State in the first round — the Vikings are 11-5 on the season.
I still don’t believe this is the right spot for Michigan State, though I do love the region draw.
How would Michigan State basketball fare in this region?
If this were to be 100 percent correct and Michigan State was a 3-seed in the West Region with the teams that Lunardi has projected to be there, it would be a very winnable field for the Spartans.
The 1-seed is, however, the best team in college basketball right now: Arizona. The 2-seed is Gonzaga, which I believe should be flipped with Michigan State, the 4-seed is Virginia, Alabama is a tough 5-seed, Tennessee is the 6-seed, and Iowa is the 7-seed. The only teams there that truly worry me are Arizona and Alabama. The rest feel like favorable matchups for the Spartans.
This is much better than the previously-projected region where the Spartans were a 4-seed with UConn, Duke, Kansas, and North Carolina all in the same 16-team field.
Maybe I’m biased, but I believe that a 16-2 team with a 6-1 Big Ten record should probably be closer to a 2-seed than a 3-seed, especially when it has wins over Arkansas, North Carolina, Kentucky, and several others which can be considered ‘Quad 1’ wins — and two losses to top-10 teams by eight total points.
We’ll see who’s right come March Madness.