Michigan State basketball drops in Joe Lunardi’s bracketology despite winning

Michigan State's Coen Carr moves the ball against Northwestern during the first half on Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing.
Michigan State's Coen Carr moves the ball against Northwestern during the first half on Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Joe Lunardi updated his bracketology on Tuesday, and Michigan State basketball fans are going to laugh at what they see.

Arizona is the No. 1 overall seed, 11 Big Ten teams made the field, and Michigan State dropped a seed line despite not losing a game and beating two straight Big Ten opponents, including one that was ranked a day earlier by 29, by double figures. The Spartans played a so-so game against Northwestern and still stumbled into a 10-point win.

Yet, Lunardi is not impressed.

The 14-2 Spartans with two losses to current top-10 teams by six points or fewer are apparently dropping seed lines left and right for… winning games.

According to Lunardi’s updated bracketology, Michigan State has fallen to the 4-seed line despite losing to a projected 2-seed and another projected 3-seed by a combined eight points. The Spartans also happen to be placed in the same region as Duke (shocker), Kansas (another shocker), North Carolina (wow, not surprised), and UConn (predictable).

That would be the most brutal region in the field, and Michigan State has already seen three of those teams this season — the Spartans beat UNC, lost to Duke, and lost to UConn in exhibition play.

I’m just going to say it: this makes no sense.

Joe Lunardi is disrespecting Tom Izzo‘a Spartans

If there’s anyone that should know that Michigan State is going to be a legit Big Ten title contender until the very end and a Final Four contender as long as Tom Izzo is head coach, it has to be Lunardi. He’s been following the sport and putting together bracketology for years, and he has constantly seen the Spartans under-seeded.

Yet he’s doing that again with his projections.

A 4-seed for a 14-2 team that has ranked wins over Arkansas, Kentucky, and North Carolina, and who beat an Iowa team that was ranked at one point by 19, a USC team that was No. 24 by 29, and probably should’ve beaten No. 4 Duke and No. 13 Nebraska.

Michigan State is on the same seed line as an Alabama team that just lost to a mediocre Texas team at home, a decent Florida team, and Texas Tech that has four losses and fewer quality wins. The Spartans are also seeded behind an Illinois team that continues to get endless love for whatever reason.

Has Lunardi lost his fastball?

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