A week ago, Michigan State basketball's Big Ten title chances were alive and well. Purdue had beaten Nebraska to put the Cornhuskers back into a tie with Michigan State, and the standings were close at the top. Michigan still held a comfortable lead, but two games is nothing with the schedule the Wolverines have remaining.
Things have changed in a hurry for the Spartans after a loss to Wisconsin.
Michigan State is now three games out of first place with six regular-season games remaining, and the Spartans' chances of repeating are essentially dead.
What does the unlikely road to a second straight Big Ten title look like?
What needs to happen for Michigan State to win the Big Ten
I'm going to put together a (rather unlikely) checklist of things that must happen if Michigan State is going to win its second straight Big Ten title. If all of these things happen, Michigan State will win a share of the conference title.
What Michigan State (10-4) must do
This one's easy. If Michigan State wants to win at least a share of the conference title, it needs to win out. That means finally winning at Mackey Arena, winning in Bloomington, and winning in Ann Arbor. It's a tough road, but Michigan State must obviously go 6-0.
What must happen with Wisconsin (10-4)
If Michigan State wins out, it really doesn't matter what happens to Wisconsin, but if the Spartans want a higher seed than the Badgers, they need to see them lose at least one more game. They go to Ohio State, Oregon, Washington, and Purdue still, so I believe that's likely.
What must happen with Purdue (11-3)
Michigan State is a game behind Purdue, so if the Spartans win out, they'll at least be tied in the Big Ten standings with the Boilermakers because of that head-to-head win. The Boilermakers also host Michigan, Indiana, and Wisconsin, and they have to go to Northwestern and Ohio State. A loss to Michigan State and one more would be ideal.
What must happen with Nebraska (11-3)
Nebraska also needs one more loss and it still has to go to Iowa, USC, and UCLA. The Cornhuskers also host Iowa. They do have the easiest remaining path of the contenders, but I could see 1-2 losses.
What must happen with Illinois (12-3)
Since Michigan State has the head-to-head tiebreaker (which only matters for Big Ten Tournament seeding), Illinois just needs to lose one more with the Spartans winning out in order to give Tom Izzo's team a higher seed. One more loss needs to happen, though. The Illini still have a West Coast trip to make along with a home game against Michigan. I see a loss happening.
What must happen with Michigan (14-1)
Michigan has just five games left and it needs to lose three more games if Michigan State even wants a chance to share the title with the Wolverines. Outside of a loss to Michigan State, Michigan must lost two of these four games: at Purdue, vs. Minnesota, at Illinois, at Iowa. Is it possible? Absolutely, but the way Michigan is playing right now, I wouldn't count on it. Losing to Purdue, Illinois, and Michigan State while the Spartans win out would force a share of the Big Ten title.
Obviously this is unlikely to all happen in the final three weeks of the season, but nothing is impossible. Michigan has the toughest remaining road, so Michigan State just needs to get hot and win the rematch.