Michigan State fans have been spoiled over the years. The Spartans haven’t missed an NCAA Tournament this century, and Tom Izzo has yet another team in line to get a top four seed.
Spartan fans have the luxury of debating where Michigan State will be seeded in this year’s NCAA Tournament rather than if it will even make the 68-team field. The debate this year will be whether Michigan State is a 2, 3, or 4-seed in next month’s tournament.
There is a very small chance that the Spartans could earn a 1-seed. I’d argue that any team that’s projected a 3-seed or higher currently has a chance to be a 1-seed by Selection Sunday.
It’s unlikely, but let’s map out what it would take for Michigan State to get a 1-seed.
What needs to happen for Michigan State to get a 1-seed
We’ll get the obvious out of the way and say that Michigan State will need to win out during the regular season, beating Michigan, Indiana, and Purdue on the road over the final two weeks.
The Spartans will also need to make it to the Big Ten Tournament title game.
I’d say that Michigan State needs to win the Big Ten Tournament, but the field is usually pretty set by the time the conference has its championship game just hours before the Selection Show. It wouldn’t hurt to win the championship and beat a team like Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, or Michigan in the process.
Even if the Spartans do all that, it may not be enough. They’ll also need some help.
Michigan is pretty much locked into a 1-seed and there’s already talk of the Wolverines picking a preferred region. I’d also say that Arizona and Duke are pretty much locked in as well. The only one seed that’s not for sure is Houston. The Spartans would need the Cougars to lose at least one more regular season game (probably two) and get knocked out before the Big 12 title game for that spot to open up.
As for jumping some of the 2-seeds, Michigan State would need Illinois and Purdue to lose 1-2 more regular season games and lose before the Big Ten title game. UConn and Iowa State are also in danger of dropping — especially the Huskies.
If Michigan State were to win out, I don’t think there’s any way the committee would be able to keep it from the No. 1 seed conversation. That road is highly unlikely, however. Not impossible, but highly unlikely.