We are closing in on March Madness, and that means it’s time to project where Michigan State will be seeded in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
The Spartans have been projected to be in the 2-4 seed range over the past few weeks and they have dropped a bit after losing to Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. The recent slump has led to the fall in the latest bracketology but there’s still a chance that Michigan State can get up to a 2-seed. The Spartans will need an incredible finish to the regular season for that.
Michigan State will have plenty of opportunities to rise up to that 2-seed line and even enter the 1-seed conversation (if it wins out), but a 3/4-seed looks most likely.
Obviously earning a 3-seed is preferable to a 4-seed based on who Michigan State would have to face in the second round, so let’s map out the road to it.
How Michigan State can earn a 3-seed
Michigan State has been a 3-seed one time in the Tom Izzo era, if you can believe that, and it didn’t go well. The Spartans beat Bucknell in the first round of the 2018 NCAA Tournament before losing to 11th-seeded Syracuse in the second round in Detroit. That team absolutely should have been seeded higher but that’s a debate for a different day.
Maintaining the 3-seed would probably be the most likely scenario for Michigan State, and here’s how the Spartans can do just that.
Considering the Spartans are currently on the 3-line, they’d probably need to go 3-2 in the final five games and win at least one game in the Big Ten Tournament. Winning the Ohio State, Rutgers, and Indiana games should be expected, but stealing one against Purdue or Michigan wouldn’t hurt — that would put the Spartans in 1-seed territory.
If Michigan State can go 3-2 and win at least one Big Ten Tournament game, I would think a 3-seed would be pretty much locked it. Beating Purdue next week in West Lafayette would lock up at least a 3-seed, in my opinion.
Michigan State wouldn’t need help anywhere else in this scenario to earn the 3-seed.