At some point, we need to stop taking bracketology seriously until the final week or two of the regular season. Unfortunately, that’s just not possible for many college basketball fans. Michigan State fans, too, are caught putting too much stock in these projections every winter.
All eyes have been on Joe Lunardi over the past couple of weeks because the season is coming to a close and the projections start holding a little more weight. Unfortunately, Lunardi has not been too kind to the Spartans over the past few weeks after having them projected as a 2-seed before the Michigan loss.
After Michigan State beat Purdue at Mackey Arena on Thursday night, Lunardi kept the Spartans on the 4-seed line behind the Boilermakers. After Illinois got dominated by Michigan at home on Friday, you’d think maybe Lunardi would pop the Spartans ahead of the Illini, too, seeing as they won head-to-head there and arguably have a better resume.
Wrong.
Lunardi’s Saturday morning projections may be his most egregious anti-Michigan State propaganda yet. It’s just insane that Michigan State can’t get respect despite being 23-5 just because it had a small rough patch and still managed to beat Purdue and Illinois in that stretch.
Here’s what Lunardi’s latest projections look like:
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) February 28, 2026
Lunardi has Michigan State as a 4-seed behind Purdue and Illinois, both of whom the Spartans have beaten over the past three weeks. They’re also somehow still behind Gonzaga and I’d also put Michigan State ahead of Nebraska, just based on resumes.
Nebraska’s best wins this season are Illinois and Michigan State (the only ranked wins the Cornhuskers have) while the Spartans have wins over Illinois, Purdue, North Carolina, Arkansas, and Kentucky. It’s not hard to tell who has the better resume and I don’t think a two-point loss in early January should hold as much weight as Lunardi is giving it.
Realistically, Michigan State and Gonzaga should be trading spots. There’s no reason that Gonzaga should be this high with its best win against Alabama and a 40-point loss to Michigan. There’s no reason they should be a 3-seed while Michigan State is still a four.
Hopefully the selection committee agrees.