Jeremy Fears had a historic performance in Michigan State’s 77-69 Round of 32 win over Louisville in Buffalo, New York, on Saturday afternoon, breaking Michigan State’s all-time NCAA Tournament record for single-game assists with 16. Yet, it was far from a perfect outing for the sophomore point guard, who scored just 12 points on 3-13 shooting, his second-straight game struggling from the field.
Fears went 2-6 shooting in Michigan State’s first-round demolition of North Dakota State, which means he heads to the Sweet 16, 5-19 from the field and 1-6 from three. It didn’t prevent Tom Izzo from getting to the second weekend for the 17th time, but it is allowing fears about his team’s ability to deliver another national championship to East Lansing to linger.
Jeremy Fears Jr. is everything for Michigan State’s offense and that could be a problem
There aren’t many teams in the country that lean on one player’s playmaking ability as much as Michigan State does with Fears. By usage rate, Fears is only 26th in the Big Ten at 32.9 percent (for players who logged over 500 minutes this year per CBBanalytics.com), but it’s not hard to look at the Spartans’ roster and notice the lack of on-ball creators.
Fears accounts for 49.4 percent of Michigan State’s assists (99th percentile), 28.4 percent of its free throw attempts (97th percentile), and 17.4 percent of its field goal attempts (80th percentile). That reliance is especially clear in half-court when Coen Carr can’t just beat everyone down the floor for a highlight-reel dunk.
Fears is such a skilled playmaker that, even when his shot is not falling, he can make a massive impact. His vision and ability to snake through a defense make him difficult to gameplan for, but not impossible, and the NCAA Tournament has proved that.
Louisville had a flawed plan for defending Fears in the pick-and-roll. Most of the game, fearing his downhill driving, they had hedged and even doubled as he came off the screen. Obviously, that allowed Fears to dice them, finding cutters and open shooters. However, when they went under screens or played drop coverage, forcing Fears to be a scorer, he didn’t do much damage.
That’s the fear about trusting Michigan State to get out of a loaded East Regional. In transition, they shoot 68.5 percent from the field, that’s 99th percentile in the country. In the half-court, that drops to 41.9 percent and 59th percentile. Louisville wasn’t willing to slow Michigan State down because Pat Kelsey prefers to play a fast-paced style. What happens when a Jon Scheyer, Dan Hurley, Bill Self, or Rick Pitino is? Can a team so reliant on one player for its offense really win a title?
Fears is a good shot-creator, but he’s an inconsistent shot-maker. If great coaches, like those in the East Region, dare him to be a scorer, not a distributor, Michigan State could be in trouble. Even after Carr’s 21-point outburst against Louisville, the Spartans don't have another shot-creator they can trust.