Earning a top three seed in the NCAA Tournament has to be atop the list of priorities for Tom Izzo and Michigan State basketball after Michigan locked up the Big Ten outright on Friday night.
The Spartans did have a small chance to share the conference title, but they didn’t get any help from an Illinois team that had been hyping up a Michigan matchup in Champaign all week only to lose by 14 and not really be anywhere close in the second half. At least Michigan State had a lead against the Wolverines to make them sweat in the final seven minutes, Illinois couldn’t even do that.
Michigan State won at Purdue on Thursday, jumping it to a 3-seed according to many bracketologists not named Joe Lunardi, and Illinois and Purdue are either right on the edge of that 2-seed line or on the 3-line. That means that there’s a chance that the Spartans could jump both.
That got me thinking: how does Michigan State’s resume compare to the projected 2 and 3-seeds?
Pretty favorably, actually.
Comparing Michigan State’s resume to other projected 2/3 seeds
I looked at the resumes, and Michigan State’s seems to compare rather favorably. Here’s what Michigan State is working with:
Record | Strength of schedule | Record vs. ranked teams | Quad 1 wins | Bad losses | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michigan State | 23-5 | 15 | 5-3 | 7 | None |
According to the experts, that resume is good enough for a 3/4 seed.
To me, it compares favorably to others teams staring directly at a 2/3 seed.
Record | Strength of schedule | Record vs. ranked teams | Quad 1 wins | Bad losses | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Illinois | 22-7 | 4 | 5-5 | 8 | None |
Purdue | 22-6 | 6 | 4-4 | 8 | None |
Florida | 22-6 | 3 | 5-3 | 9 | 1 |
Iowa State | 24-4 | 18 | 4-1 | 6 | 1 |
Kansas | 21-7 | 8 | 5-4* | 8 | 1 |
Houston | 24-5 | 11 | 4-5 | 7 | None |
Gonzaga | 28-2 | 44 | 4-1 | 6 | 1 |
Nebraska | 24-4 | 22 | 2-3 | 7 | None |
Comparing Michigan State’s resume to the rest of the projected 2/3 seeds shows that the Spartans should absolutely be on the 3-line, and there’s no reason they should be out on a 2-seed.
Five teams have a higher strength of schedule, but only two three teams have a better record than Michigan State against ranked teams (Florida, Iowa State, Gonzaga). Granted, these ranked wins could be against teams that were ranked at the time but are no longer (Gonzaga’s win over Auburn) — that Auburn game is a bad home loss for Florida also.
Michigan State is tied for the most ranked wins, it has no bad loaders, a better record than all but three of those teams, and a competitive strength of schedule in the top-15 nationally. If Michigan State can win at Indiana, that’ll give it another Quad 1 win and then a win at Michigan would give the Spartans nine on the year.
To me, this is a team that’s locked in to a 3-seed, at the very least.