History suggests that Michigan State will make it to the Elite Eight, at the very least

Although the experts may not be picking the Spartans, history is on Michigan State’s side as it heads into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Wins over North Dakota State and Louisville have gotten the Spartans back to the Sweet 16 for a second straight season, and they’re looking for their second consecutive Elite Eight as well.

A win on Friday over a really good UConn team will send the Spartans to the Elite Eight where they would face Cameron Boozer and Duke or Rick Pitino and St. John’s.

Tom Izzo just eliminated Pitino’s former school and he beat his son, Richard Pitino, in the 2025 NCAA Tournament when he was with New Mexico. He could complete the trifecta on Sunday if he can get by Dan Hurley ands the Huskies. Beating the younger Pitino, the older Pitino’s former team, and the older Pitino with his new team in the span of a calendar year would be a heck of a run.

At that point, Izzo has to become an honorary member of the family.

Before we get too ahead of ourselves, let’s talk about how history is on Michigan State’s side heading into the Sweet 16 against UConn.

Per an incredible stat pull by @SpartyWRLD on X, Michigan State had won its first-round games by 23-plus points just four times ever before this year’s team beat North Dakota State by 25 last weekend to make it five. The four previous times that Michigan State beat its first-round opponent by 23-plus points, the Spartans made it to the Elite Eight, at the very least.

What does this mean? It means that history suggests that the Spartans are going to win on Friday against UConn and make it to at least the Elite Eight. The Spartans have made two Final Fours, won a national title, and made an Elite Eight the last four times it won its first round games by 23-plus.

Will this year’s team break the trend or hang another banner?

Michigan State’s Final Four path is taking shape

There’s still a long week ahead before we can talk about Michigan State in the Final Four, but if the Spartans can beat UConn on Friday, there’s a good chance that Izzo will make his ninth Final Four.

Beating UConn is step one, and it won’t be easy. Dan Hurley has won two of the past three national championships. Then the Spartans must beat either Pitino and St. John’s or Duke and the national player of the year. Another rough matchup no matter who wins that game — at least the Spartans have already seen Duke this year.

After that, Michigan State will face one of Houston, Nebraska, Iowa, or Illinois in the Final Four. If the Spartans get a Big Ten team, that would be a nice advantage. Ideally, it would be Nebraska or Iowa.

If the Spartans make the title game, it could be Michigan. May our mental health remain intact if that happens in two weeks.

Izzo has a very legitimate chance, folks.