Tom Izzo has been in this position before. The Hall of Fame Michigan State basketball coach has seen his teams get cold to start the month of February only to heat up right before the NCAA Tournament.
As the calendar turned to February for the 2024-25 Spartans, they immediately dropped their first two games in two months, falling to 9-2 in the Big Ten and 18-4 overall. While many fans are playing the "sky is falling" card, those who know about the early February lull are not shocked nor worried.
In fact, Michigan State's worst win percentage throughout the season over the past 10 years is in the first week of February and what follows is usually exponentially better.
I shared this graphic in an article yesterday about a different scenario, but @LarryKazamias on X replied to a tweet about the poor starts to February and came with receipts. He did the research and found that the first week of February produces just a 37.5% win rate while the following week is statistically the best of the season, producing a 93.8% win rate.
Saw elsewhere, I accept your proposal based on this data pic.twitter.com/ZiSPnNw06C
— LarryK (@LarryKazamias) February 5, 2025
So what does this tell all the fans who have prematurely hit the panic button on a first-place team that's 18-4 on the season and likely needs to finish 6-3 in the conference to win the title? There's a hot streak on the way.
Sure, the week after that 93.8% win rate is usually tough again, but the fourth week of February as well as March make up for it.
If we're going to trust the trends over the years, we're just going to assume that Michigan State is going to get hot again after this two-game skid.
Oh, and Izzo has a chance to break Bob Knight's record at home vs. Indiana.