Believe it or not, Michigan State basketball still controls its own destiny in the Big Ten title race despite a recent cold stretch that has seen the Spartans lose three out of four games.
In those three losses, Michigan State has failed to crack the 70-point plateau which seems to be the key factor in determining if the Spartans are going to secure the win. In games that Michigan State has failed to break 70 points, it's just 1-5. In games that the Spartans score 70-plus, they are 18-0. So if Michigan State can just score 70, it wins 100 percent of the time.
With some truly difficult games on the horizon to close out the regular season, the Spartans will have to regain that momentum offensively to secure a Big Ten title.
How will the final seven games play out?
Game 1: at Illinois (Feb. 15 at 8 p.m. ET)
This one scares me but it could also act as the perfect get-right game. The Spartans have had some of these over the years after cold stretches like when it lost three straight in 2015-16 and then came back to dominate No. 7 Maryland at home. Or in 2019-20 when the Spartans lost four out of five in February and ended the season by beating five ranked teams in the final seven games.
I can see Michigan State coming out strong, but it'll take a herculean effort to beat a hungry Illinois team in Champaign, especially since the Illini felt wronged in the first meeting. Slight edge to the home team.
Prediction: Michigan State 68, Illinois 73 (19-6, 10-4)
Game 2: vs. No. 7 Purdue (Feb. 18 at 7 p.m. ET)
Now this will be that typical rebound game in which the Spartans figure it out and put it all together to beat an elite team. Purdue is somehow still great despite losing Zach Edey and it's because of Breden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn but Michigan State is going to play motivated hoops and pick up its biggest win of the season in convincing fashion. Oh, and Izzo breaks the record.
Prediction: Purdue 71, Michigan State 81 (20-6, 11-4)
Game 3: at No. 20 Michigan (Feb. 21 at 8 p.m. ET)
Unfortunately, Michigan is no longer a pushover like it was last season and this game must be taken seriously because the Wolverines are the Big Ten's No. 1 team. Dusty May has done a masterful job with this team and they're playing some really good ball, but I think Michigan State will get Vlad Goldin in foul trouble early and that will create some favorable matchups for the Spartans. This one will go down to the wire, but it'll be a gutty win for the green and white in Crisler.
Prediction: Michigan State 76, Michigan 74 (21-6, 12-4)
Game 4: at No. 25 Maryland (Feb. 26 at 6:30 p.m. ET)
Maryland is another one of those ranked teams in which the Spartans will play in the final month and the Terrapins worry me because of their bigs. They have two guys who can cause serious problems down low and they've been carrying the team all season. They're going to put up a heck of a fight here and probably topple the Spartans who just won't have the answers down low.
Prediction: Michigan State 65, Maryland 71 (21-7, 12-5)
Game 5: vs. No. 16 Wisconsin (March 2 at 1:30 p.m. ET)
Wisconsin took Michigan State down twice last year and that's honestly unacceptable for an Izzo team to get swept by Greg Gard but I don't think we'll see that happen this year. The Spartans are much better and they'll be hungry to get back into the win column after a heartbreaking loss in College Park. Jeremy Fears has a career game and Jase Richardson is dominant down the stretch to lead the Spartans to another ranked Quad 1 win.
Prediction: Wisconsin 74, Michigan State 79 (22-7, 13-5)
Game 6: at Iowa (March 6 at 8 p.m. ET)
Yeah, my cage is being rattled as I write this. Playing at Iowa brings back some bad memories that honestly are seared into every Spartan fan's brain. That game from two years ago in which Michigan State led by 10 with 90 seconds left and ended up losing in overtime lives rent free in all of our heads and now Michigan State must go back to the scene of the crime in the second-to-last game of the season with a potential Big Ten title on the line. No funny business this time as Michigan State is clearly the better team and it proves that.
Prediction: Michigan State 80, Iowa 69 (23-7, 14-5)
Game 7: vs. No. 20 Michigan (March 9 at 12 p.m. ET)
I could see the Big Ten title (likely a share) coming down to this final game with Michigan holding a one-game lead over the Spartans in the standings and Michigan State needing to secure a season sweep in order to share the conference crown. The Spartans will get it done on the back of a huge senior day by Jaden Akins and Frankie Fidler as they combine for 35 points and Richardson adds 15 of his own. Oh, and Coen Carr brings down the house with a game-clinching and-one alley-oop over Goldin.
Prediction: Michigan 71, Michigan State 78 (24-7, 15-5)
Will 15-5 be enough to win a Big Ten title? Given the remaining schedules of Michigan and Purdue, I'm going to say yes, at least a share. Michigan State has to make a statement in the final seven games to do just that.