November’s Michigan State vs. Michigan showdown is going to feature two brand-new head coaches for the second time in the past three seasons, and this time feels a lot different.
Unlike the last time both programs faced each other with brand-new head coaches, there’s a lot more excitement surrounding both of them. Jonathan Smith and Sherrone Moore didn’t exactly get people fired up for the rivalry and now that they’ve been replaced by some veteran coaches who understand how rivalries work, they’ve series should be exciting for years to come.
Unfortunately, Vegas doesn’t believe that excitement will happen in Year 1.
In fact, DraftKings released its way-too-early odds for Nov. 7’s Michigan State vs. Michigan game and they’re as lopsided as you’d expect, given the expectations placed on the Spartans for 2026. Michigan, on the other hand, is ranked 17th.
Line: Michigan State +16.5
Over/Under: 50.5
Moneyline: Michigan -950 | Michigan State +625
Is that what you’d expect for the opening line of a rivalry game that’s still two whole months away? Honestly, most Michigan State fans would say yes, especially when you consider how lopsided these games have been in recent years. Fitzgerald has a lot to prove and it’ll start by making that game competitive again.
Don’t get me wrong, the odds are a little more lopsided than I would personally project, but that’s what it’s kind of ridiculous to be releasing odds for a game two months away.
Vegas isn’t a huge believer in a Michigan State over Michigan upset this season.
Why Michigan State can absolutely beat Michigan
Michigan State is going to be able to pull off the “upset” for a few reasons, starting with the fact that the Wolverines have a bit of a quarterback issue. Many are worried that Bryce Underwood is going to have a short leash and the Wolverines could very well turn to true freshman Tommy Carr at some point this season. Either way, it feels like that’s not going to be a position of strength.
Underwood is likely going to hold the job the entire year, but his growth won’t be enough to warrant a top-15 ranking for the Wolverines at really any point this season.
Michigan State also now has a head coach who understands the rivalry and isn’t going to “aw shucks” his way to an embarrassing loss. Fitzgerald has made the Michigan game a priority for his guys and having Mark Dantonio around is only going to help strengthen that hatred for the team down the road.
The chip is back on the shoulder.
Plus, I’m not so confident that Kyle Whittingham is going to be a good fit in Ann Arbor, especially when he can’t even say that he hates Ohio State — Michigan fans didn’t love that.
A new coach to the Big Ten with a bit of a quarterback issue and a team that doesn’t necessarily jump off the sheet as the most talented Michigan team in years shouldn’t equal 16.5-point favorites in a rivalry game, but there’s another chip to add to the Spartans’ shoulders.
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