Who would have thought before the season started that Michigan State basketball would be in a prime position to win the Big Ten, battling it out with Michigan and Purdue with a month left to play?
Definitely not the experts.
Michigan State is in that spot, however, with eight regular-season games left and it feels like it has control of its down destiny -- because it does.
But sitting at 10-2 in the conference, Michigan State is 0.5 games behind Purdue which is 11-2 and tied with Michigan which is also 10-2. Still in the running but two games back are UCLA and Wisconsin and Maryland has also been surging.
As it stands on Feb. 10, however, Michigan State, Purdue, and Michigan are the most likely trio to be in contention for the Big Ten crown in the final weeks of the season. So that begs the question, how do their remaining schedules compare? Does Michigan State have the best chance to dethrone Purdue and win its first title since 2020? Let's take a look, starting with each team's away opponents.
Michigan State | Purdue | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
@ No. 23 Illinois | @ No. 24 Michigan | @ Ohio State |
@ No. 24 Michigan | @ No. 9 Michigan State | @ Nebraska |
@ No. 18 Maryland | @ Indiana | @ No. 9 Michigan State |
@ Iowa | @ No. 23 Illinois |
In this case, I'd say Michigan State and Purdue have the hardest remaining road schedules but the Spartans play Michigan on the road with a chance to really make a statement in the Big Ten standings. Michigan State and Purdue each play three ranked opponents and Michigan plays just one (Michigan State).
Given that road schedule, Michigan has the easiest road. I could see the Wolverines losing at least two of their remaining road games, so it's not like those three are a cakewalk.
Now, let's take a look at the remaining home opponents.
Michigan State | Purdue | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
Indiana | No. 21 Wisconsin | No. 7 Purdue |
No. 7 Purdue | UCLA | No. 9 Michigan State |
No. 21 Wisconsin | Rutgers | Rutgers |
No. 24 Michigan | No. 23 Illinois | |
No. 18 Maryland |
In this home scenario, Purdue has the easiest remaining schedule and I see the Boilermakers winning each of these three games rather comfortably. They might have a tough time with Wisconsin.
Michigan has the toughest remaining home slate with two top-10 teams (before Monday's new rankings come out) and two more AP Top 25 teams to round out the schedule. Michigan State has the second-best home slate remaining among these three.
If Michigan State can take care of all four of these remaining home opponents, I think all it will need to win the Big Ten is a 2-2 mark (Iowa and one of the three between Michigan, Maryland, and Illinois).
I am going to predict a 6-2 finish to the regular-season for the Spartans as they go 16-4 in the Big Ten and 25-6 overall. I see Purdue finishing 5-2 and also finishing 16-4 in the conference, tying Michigan State there and the Spartans would hold the head-to-head advantage. As for Michigan, I'm predicting a 5-3 finish for the Wolverines because they'll be playing a number of tough home opponents still. That would mean Michigan State and Purdue tie for the title and Michigan finishes one game back.
I could see any of these three winning the title but given the remaining schedules, I think Michigan may have the toughest remaining by just a hair over Michigan State.