The 2025 season is right around the corner as we're in the home stretch before Michigan State football takes the field to begin Jonathan Smith's second year.
Michigan State went 5-7 in Smith's first season which could be considered close to the worst-case scenario. The best-case scenario for the Spartans in the first year of Smith would have been 7-8 wins based on the previous two seasons of disappointment. Unfortunately, the Spartans fell short of their goals and Aidan Chiles struggled in the process.
The best-case for the 2025 version of the Spartans has to be around the same win total, but maybe more like 8-9 wins rather than 7-8 victories.
What's the worst-case scenario? I'd say five wins again.
CBS Sports weighed in with their best and worst-case scenarios for each Big Ten team, including Michigan State which aligned with my thought process.
It listed Michigan State's best-case scenario as a 9-3 season and the worst-case scenario is a shocking 3-9. That would be a 2016-esque disaster because of the favorable schedule the Spartans are facing and the fact that Smith is returning a talented quarterback and an offense that should be vastly improved. A 3-9 season would likely signify the need for change (again).
According to that best-case scenario, Michigan State beats Michigan but a loss to Penn State crushes playoff hopes, but Chiles' 2026 return ignites some national respect.
On the flip side, the worst-case would be a Chiles regression and an early loss to Boston College which leads to the team spiraling out of control similar to the 2024 campaign.
A "successful" year, in my opinion, would be at least seven wins and a bowl victory.