We’re at the point in the season where you’re about to hear the terms “bracketologist” and “bracketology” about a million times. That’s partially my fault (apologies in advance) as I’ll be writing about these topics every day for the next two weeks, but you can blame Tom Izzo and Michigan State for always making the NCAA Tournament.
The Spartans haven’t missed the tourney in decades under Izzo and this year is no exception. They’re projected to make the tournament as a top four seed after a 24-5 start to the season.
With two regular season games left, going 2-0 could move them up to a seed line that was not thought to be possible even two weeks ago. A two-game sweep of Purdue and Indiana on the road which followed two home wins over UCLA and Ohio State has really boosted Michigan State’s resume and its projected seed line has reflected those big wins.
The win over Indiana on Sunday pretty much solidified 2-seed status via several major bracketologists, including Joe Lunardi who had the Spartans as a 4-seed even after the Purdue win.
One bracketologist (see, there’s that dang word again) believes that Michigan State has an outside chance of getting that last 1-seed.
No. 1 seeds
— Brad Wachtel (@Brad_Wachtel) March 3, 2026
Duke 🔒
Michigan 🔒
Arizona 🔒
Final No. 1 seed comes down to UConn and Florida with Michigan State being a long shot dark horse.
Brad Wachtel does some work for Field of 68 and is the lead bracketologist at Hoops HQ. He believes that there are three 1-seeds essentially locked up in Duke, Michigan, and Arizona.
The final 1-seed, however, is still in play. It currently looks like it’s UConn’s, but Wachtel believes that Michigan State and Florida are also in the mix. This is quite the drastic change from previous 1-seed contenders like Purdue, Illinois, Houston, and Iowa State.
Michigan State has a real chance to earn that 1-seed.
How each 1-seed contender’s remaining road looks
- Michigan State (24-5, 14-4 Big Ten)
Michigan State would likely need to win out in this scenario. The Spartans host Rutgers for what should be a comfortable win and then head down the road to Ann Arbor to face No. 3 Michigan. A win there would put Michigan State probably just ahead of Florida.
They’d likely see Wisconsin in their first Big Ten Tournament matchup after a triple-bye which would be another Quad 1 win. Then they could see a team like Nebraska or UCLA in the semifinals before maybe facing a Michigan, Illinois, or Purdue again in the title game. Even getting to the title game in that scenario puts MSU in really good shape for a 1-seed — or at least the highest 2-seed.
- UConn (27-3, 17-2 Big East)
UConn has just one regular season game left and it’s at Marquette. In a normal season, that would be a really tough way to close the year, but this has not been Marquette’s best performance. The Golden Eagles are dead-last in the Big East with a 5-13 conference record and they’re just 10-19 overall. It just hasn’t been a good year for Shaka Smart.
That’s likely a win, and it will give UConn the 1-seed in the Big East Tournament. The Huskies would face the winner of Butler/Xavier (not a quality win), then the winner of Seton Hall/DePaul (another not-so-amazing win). It would likely see St. John’s or Villanova in the title game for a Quad 1 opportunity.
A loss before the title game likely knocks UConn off that 1-line.
- Florida (23-6, 14-2 SEC)
The reigning national champs got off to a really slow start to the season, going just 5-4 through the first nine games with losses to Arizona, Duke, and UConn. They’re Gators have since been one of the hottest teams in the nation, going 18-2 over their last 20. They’re going to get the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament after hosting Mississippi State and then they have a tough battle at Kentucky to end the regular season.
That Kentucky game could very well be a loss, knocking them down below the Spartans.
Florida would face the winner of Vanderbilt and Texas A&M (most likely) in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals before facing the winner of Missouri vs. Oklahoma/Mississippi State/Kentucky. None of those wins really jump off the paper like an MSU win over Wisconsin followed by Nebraska would.
The championship game would be likely one of Tennessee/Arkansas/Alabama. That would be an impressive win.
Overall, I think there’s more to grab for Michigan State than any of the other 1-seed contenders. The Spartans have several Quad 1 opportunities left while UConn is limited to likely one in the Big East title game and Florida could add a couple that would be a tier below MSU’s.
A lot to play for still, folks.