It’s March, which means it’s the exact time of the year in which you’d want your team to be playing its best basketball. For Michigan State, that’s true based on their play to end the regular season as well as the first two games of the NCAA Tournament.
The Spartans are shooting over 40 percent from three in the tournament, playing solid defense, and rebounding at a high level. They’re playing some really good ball.
Their East Region draw was brutal, though. The Spartans went from a projected 2-seed down to a 3-seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament and were given a region with Duke, UConn, Kansas, St. John’s, Louisville, and UCLA. It was an absolutely loaded region, but through two rounds, Michigan State’s road is looking a little more manageable.
According to one Big Ten analyst, the Spartans have the “clearest” path to a national title.
"You look at Michigan State right now playing their best basketball—you don't want to be even a little bit hobbled playing the Spartans."@RaphealDavis3 explains why @MSU_Basketball has the clearest path to the national title 👀#B1GToday pic.twitter.com/J3QPFfazEw
— Big Ten Men's Basketball (@B1GMBBall) March 24, 2026
Rapheal Davis would pick Michigan State’s path over any other Big Ten team at this point in the NCAA Tournament. That’s kind of a hot take, but here’s who each Big Ten team might have to play on their way to a Final Four:
Michigan State: UConn, Duke/St. John’s
Iowa: Nebraska, Illinois/Houston
Nebraska: Iowa, Illinois/Houston
Illinois: Houston, Iowa/Nebraska
Michigan: Alabama, Tennessee/Iowa State
Purdue: Texas, Arizona/Arkansas
You could make the argument that Duke being hampered makes them the easiest 1-seed remaining, but if Caleb Foster returns, that could change. UConn is a strong 2-seed, contrary to popular belief, and St. John’s is coached by a legend and is playing its best basketball right now.
While I don’t exactly agree with Davis about the Spartans having the clearest path, I do think that opinion is based more on the fact that he believes heavily in Michigan State.
Michigan State could be part of an all-Big Ten Final Four
If UCLA had beaten UConn in the second round, that would have meant that Michigan State could have seen a Big Ten in the Sweet 16, Final Four, and national title game if it won out.
Now, there’s a chance that Michigan State could face a Big Ten team in the Final Four with Nebraska, Iowa, and Illinois all battling it out to win the South Region. There’s also a chance that Purdue or Michigan could come out of the other side of the bracket.
Imagine a Final Four of Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, and Michigan. That would not only make for the most toxic week of social media ever, but it would finally give the Big Ten a national champion.