The first huge shock of the 2026 NCAA Tournament happened on Sunday night as No. 1 seed and defending national champion Florida was upset by ninth-seeded Iowa in the second round.
The loss was painful for the Gators as they were big favorites and they had a two-point lead with nine seconds left but an Iowa three sunk the reigning national champions. That means that arguably the scariest team from South Region is off the board if Michigan State is able to make the Final Four.
Florida entered the NCAA Tournament as one of the favorites to win the national title and the Gators were actually a really popular pick to repeat. They were the clear favorite to come out of the South, but now that goes to Houston which will be playing Illinois next week in the Sweet 16. Iowa will now face Nebraska next week, which means that the South Region very well could be represented by a Big Ten team which wouldn’t be bad for Michigan State — easy scouting.
It’s crazy to think that one of Nebraska, Illinois, Iowa, or Houston will be heading to a Final Four after two more wins next weekend.
I’m not going to say the path for Michigan State to get to a national title game got “easier” because UConn/UCLA and Duke/St. John’s will be standing in the Spartans’ way. The East Region is winnable, and if the Spartans can make the Final Four, I like their chances to win at least one more.
What does Michigan State’s path to a title look like?
It’s kind of crazy to think, but Michigan State’s run to a national title could feature almost all Big Ten teams. The Spartans could face UCLA in the Sweet 16 if the Bruins are able to take down the second-seeded UConn Huskies but they could also face Nebraska, Illinois, or Iowa in the Final Four and Purdue or Michigan in the title game.
I wouldn’t say any of this is likely, but Michigan State’s path just got a lot more interesting with Florida going down in shocking fashion against the Hawkeyes.
Izzo and the Spartans will have to take care of business next weekend before they even need to worry about Florida losing to the Hawkeyes.