If today feels an awful lot like Christmas, it’s not because Halloween is officially in the rearview mirror and the holiday season is approaching, but rather Michigan State basketball returns.
The Spartans tip off their 2025-26 season on Monday night against Colgate at the Breslin Center, and there are a few reasons to be excited. For one, this begins the defense of the Big Ten title that Michigan State won by three games last season. Two, this team has four key players returning from that Big Ten title team. And three, Tom Izzo feels more rejuvenated and motivated.
Experts are saying that Michigan State might struggle to make the NCAA Tournament this season, but with guys like Jeremy Fears Jr., Coen Carr, Trey Fort, Jaxon Kohler, and Carson Cooper, it feels like that’s a baseless prediction for a team with plenty of weapons.
So without further ado, let’s dive into some 2025-26 bold predictions for the Spartans.
1. MSU finishes with a winning record vs. the ‘Big 4’
There are four monsters awaiting the Spartans on the 2025-26 non-conference schedule: Kentucky, Duke, North Carolina, and Arkansas. All four of those teams are ranked in the preseason AP Top 25, and all pose different threats to the Spartans this season.
After watching Michigan State struggle a bit with UConn, many fans panicked and immediately predicted a 1-3 record, at best, against the four major opponents on the non-conference slate, but I think we’ll see major improvement from the Spartans over the next month-plus, leading to a 3-1, at worst, record against the toughest opponents on the early-season slate.
I’ll predict wins over Arkansas, North Carolina, and Duke and a loss to Kentucky.
2. Jeremy Fears Jr. leads the Big Ten in assists
Last season, Jeremy Fears Jr. was third in the Big Ten in assists at 5.4 per game, a whopping 3.3 per outing behind the conference leader, Braden Smith. I think Smith will average around 7.5-8 assists per game, and Fears will be just over the 8.0 per game mark, leading the Big Ten.
Fears is going to make a serious push for Cassius Winston’s all-time record before it’s all said and done, and this season will help him make up some serious ground.
3. Jaxon Kohler averages a double-double
It’s been a minute since the Spartans had someone averaging a double-double on the roster, but I think Jaxon Kohler becomes the latest this season. He showed a willingness to throw his body around on the glass during the preseason and we’ve seen him become a tenacious rebounder over the past couple of seasons, but it’s all been leading to the regular season of his senior year.
I see Kohler improving around the rim this season and finishing better while also getting to the line a ton, and finishing with around 12 points per game to go along with 10 rebounds.
4. A freshman becomes the sixth man
Michigan State has several players who can come off the bench first each game like Divine Ugochukwu, Kur Teng (or Trey Fort if Izzo decides to go with the younger guy as a starter), Jesse McCulloch, and Cam Ward, but my favorite to be the team’s sixth man is a freshman.
Jordan Scott is going to become the sixth man and play valuable minutes off the bench throughout the season as a surprise breakout star. He won’t quite have a Jase Richardson impact, but he’s going to make some winning plays throughout the season that will give the Spartans a much-needed boost.
For the second straight year, the team’s best bench player will be a freshman (Jase was a sixth man until he finally got the nod to start).
5. Top 3 finish in the Big Ten, another Elite 8
The reigning Big Ten champs have been predicted to finish somewhere around sixth in the conference standings this season, and that’s just disrespectful.
Michigan State is going to find ways to win tough games and it’ll start red-hot in Big Ten play before a February lull, and then a hot finish to conference action will result in a top-three finish. That will help the Spartans earn a top 3-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament and I see another Elite Eight run coming.
Unfortunately, Duke will bet revenge in the Elite Eight, paying the Spartans back for that early-season loss in East Lansing.