Twelve years ago, UConn knocked a Gary Harris-led Michigan State team out of the NCAA Tournament in the Elite Eight, and Tom Izzo hasn’t forgotten that loss. That year’s Michigan State team looked good enough to win it all, but Shabazz Napier and the Huskies were just too hot and the Spartans were just another one of their victims on the way to a national title.
This year, UConn stands in the way of another Michigan State team good enough to win it all, but this time, it’s in the Sweet 16 and not the Elite Eight.
This time around, Michigan State is going to advance.
And here’s why.
1. Jeremy Fears Jr. won’t replicate the first meeting
While I put very little stock in preseason contests, I do believe that Jeremy Fears Jr. has improved drastically since then. He had 14 points and six assists which doesn’t sound bad, but when you look at the other numbers, you realize he didn’t play well at all, and Michigan State only lost by seven.
Fears scored 10 of his points at the line and he turned the ball over six times. He shot just 2-for-7 from the floor and also had three fouls. This may have been the sophomore’s worst performance in the past calendar year.
That won’t happen again, and now UConn has to prepare to face an All-American.
2. Michigan State’s shooters are hot
Since the end of regular season, Michigan State’s shooters have been gaining confidence. Not just some of Michigan State’s shooters, but all of them have gotten hot at the same time, it seems.
Kur Teng is shooting well, Trey Fort is hot, Jordan Scott’s volume is down, but he’s hitting his threes, and Jaxon Kohler has found his touch. Even guys like Fears and Coen Carr are beginning to perk up from three, and that’s bad news for UConn because 3-point shooting was the only thing Michigan State was really missing from this year’s squad.
3. Transition offense
UConn is really good in the half court and Michigan State is much better in transition. Something’s got to give. The Spartans are going to play to their strengths and I trust in Tom Izzo to have the perfect game plan against the Huskies.
Izzo and the Spartans have likely been focusing on rebounding and getting out in transition all week and they’re going to come out and follow the game plan to perfection.
Michigan State’s going to run a ton against the Huskies and that’s going to lead to a ton of transition buckets, wearing UConn down late.