Tom Izzo is preparing for one of the biggest games of his career, facing a UConn team that has won two of the past three national titles. Michigan State has beaten the Huskies two straight times in the regular season (the last time being in the Bahamas), but the last time these two played in the NCAA Tournament, Shabazz Napier broke the Spartans’ hearts.
It’s time to avenge that loss.
UConn isn’t going to be an easy matchup for the Spartans, and we already saw that before the season started when these two faced off in an exhibition game that went the Huskies’ way, 76-69.
These are the key statistical categories that are going to decide Friday’s Sweet 16 matchup.
1. Rebounding
When UConn and Michigan State met the first time, rebounding played a massive role. The Huskies got too many second-chance opportunities with 12 offensive boards, and a Tarris Reed-less UConn team beat the Spartans on the glass — that’s worrisome when you think about it. Reed grabbed a whopping 27 rebounds against Furman.
If Michigan State wants to win this one, it’ll need to keep Reed off the glass as much as possible because he’s clearly capable of dominating.
Michigan State has to win the rebounding battle if it wants to win the game. Rebounding leads into the next point actually.
2. Transition points
We’ve already talked about this earlier this week, but UConn has one of the best half-court defenses in the country, ranking in the 95th percentile in terms of half-court field goal percentage allowed.
Michigan State hasn’t been great inthe half court this season. The Spartans have, however, been elite in transition, ranking in the 100th percentile in terms of fastbreak field goal percentage. Something has to give, but I believe if Michigan State can get out and run and score a little above their season average on the fastbreak, the Spartans will win this game.
Controlling the pace is key.
3. Three-point shooting
This often flies under the radar in terms of important stats, but Michigan State fans know all too well how important this category is. Back when these two teams met in exhibition play, UConn shot nearly 40 percent from three, making nine shots, and Michigan State was just 4-of-14. The difference was just seven points. If MSU held UConn to under 35 percent, it may win that game.
Keeping the Huskies off the 3-point line is important because when they get hot, they’re incredibly difficult to stop, and Michigan State has been known to give up a ton of threes.
Holding the Huskies to under 35 percent from deep while making 35-plus percent would likely give Michigan State a win, assuming the rest of the statistical categories don’t favor UConn.