Michigan State basketball is headed to the Elite Eight and the Spartans' reward is a date with the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, the Auburn Tigers.
Tom Izzo has been here before and he even told his team on Saturday night during film and prep for this game, stating that his Spartans beat No. 1 overall seed Louisville back in 2009 to advance to a Final Four and then took down No. 1 overall seed Duke in 2019 to make that national semifinal. He's no stranger to beating elite teams to make Final Fours and this could be the latest example.
But Auburn has a lot of advantages in this matchup.
Unlike the Bryant, New Mexico, and Ole Miss matchups, Michigan State is at a disadvantage in most major categories, but the Spartans do have three key advantages.
1. Fastbreak points
If there's one distinct advantage that Michigan State has over Auburn, it has to be the fastbreak scoring. The Spartans are fifth in the country in fastbreak scoring with 15.8 points per game.
On the other hand, Auburn is 161st in the country in fastbreak points with just under 10 per game which is surprising given the fact that the Tigers average over 80 points per game. This means that they're dangerous in the half-court, but they don't get out and run nearly as much as Michigan State.
This could play a big role on Sunday.
2. Rebounding
Auburn is a scary team in pretty much all aspects and it's still one of the better rebounding teams in college basketball, but the Spartans are better on the glass which is critical.
When Michigan State out-rebounds teams, it's usually winning the game. If that's the case on Sunday night, the Spartans will be in good shape.
Michigan State averages about two more rebounds per game and is eighth nationally in defensive rebounding percentage while the Tigers are 131st in the same category. Keeping Auburn off the offensive glass might be the difference.
3. Free throw shooting
Games are won and lost at the free throw line and thankfully Michigan State did much better against Ole Miss than it had in recent weeks, closing the door down the stretch thanks to some massive makes by Tre Holloman and Co.
The Spartans have a big advantage here.
Michigan State draws more fouls, gets called for fewer fouls, and has a higher free throw percentage than the Tigers. In fact, the Spartans are 25th nationally in free throw percentage (they were in the top five a month ago) while Auburn is 135th. If the game comes down to free throws, Michigan State has the advantage.