3 bold predictions for Michigan State basketball vs. No. 13 Purdue

Feb 15, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA;  Michigan State Spartans guard Jaden Akins (3) drives the ball past Illinois Fighting Illini guard Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn (2) during the second half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images
Feb 15, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Michigan State Spartans guard Jaden Akins (3) drives the ball past Illinois Fighting Illini guard Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn (2) during the second half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Beating Purdue is something that hasn't come easy for really anyone over the past 10, or so, years as Matt Painter has built an impressive program and even led the Boilermakers to their first Final Four in decades last year. But Michigan State basketball isn't going to back down from a challenge.

Don't worry, folks, this year's matchup won't be in West Lafayette as Mackey Arena has been a house of horrors for Michigan State.

The Spartans find themselves 11-3 in the Big Ten with six games left and Purdue is now 11-4 in the conference. A win here might just elminate the Boilermakers from the Big Ten title race and make it a two-team battle down to the finish between Michigan and Michigan State.

Let's get bold.

1. Braden Smith is held under 10 points

In Purdue's 26 games this year, Braden Smith has only been held under 10 points six times. In those six games, Purdue is 3-3. So basically, if you limit Smith, there's a good chance you'll be able to beat the Boilermakers. Keep him out of the score column and you'll have a huge advantage.

Outside of Smith, the Boilermakers have Trey Kaufman-Renn who leads the team in scoring and has been a revelation this year, but if they have to rely solely on the big man, they could be in trouble.

Smith will be stymied by Jeremy Fears and held to just seven points -- his third time under 10 points in the past four games.

2. Jaden Akins finally has a 20-point outing

It's been a minute since Jaden Akins scored 20-plus in a game and that drought will end on Tuesday night as he'll finish with a team-high 23 points to go along with four rebounds and two steals.

Akins needs to step up and be the senior lead and go-to scorer of this team down the stretch with the toughest part of the schedule ending the regular season. If he wants to end his Michigan State career with a Big Ten title, he's going to need an Aaron Henry junior year type of run down the stretch and that begins on Tuesday night.

We'll see some dawg out of Akins against Purdue with his first 20-point game since Jan. 9.

3. Michigan State wins another classic

The spread for this game is slim and Michigan State is favored, but that doesn't mean this will be an easy win for the Spartans. Heck, last time the Spartans were at home as the favorite, they lost to Indiana on a night that was supposed to be special for Tom Izzo and Co., breaking Bob Knight's all-time Big Ten wins record. It wasn't meant to be.

But now that the record has been secured, the Spartans can play loose again and just get back to the basics which is rebounding, running, and defending. They did that well for three months, it's time to get back to it.

Michigan State will win the rebounding battle, dominate the fast break, and even hit 40-plus percent of its 3-point attempts. The Spartans win another classic against Purdue, 76-74.