Michigan State football: Where will Spartans land in Week 11 playoff rankings?

After Michigan State football’s loss to Purdue on Saturday evening, they’ll certainly drop in the College Football Playoff rankings. The question is where?

The Spartans ended up dropping from No. 5 to No. 8 in this week’s AP Poll, which seemingly adjusted to the playoff rankings. For example, Oregon jumped Ohio State after rallying to avoid upset against Washington. Meanwhile, Ohio State toughened out a game against Nebraska, who almost had an upset of its own.

The AP Poll also followed suit in the College Football Playoff’s trend of prioritizing head-to-head battles over recency bias. Not only did Oregon top Ohio State in the AP Poll, but Michigan State fell to No. 8, placing Michigan in a stalemate, staying at No. 9.

Michigan State football’s placement likely depends on how Cincinnati is treated

In the first College Football Playoff rankings last Tuesday, both Oklahoma and Cincinnati felt mistreated. Oklahoma has yet to place a significant victory, with its best opponents yet to come, and Cincinnati’s only significant victory is against Notre Dame.

If Oklahoma can beat both Baylor and Oklahoma State, its most difficult opponents of the season, they’ll see some respect. I can’t say the same about the Bearcats.

If the College Football Playoff committee uses the same metrics to measure this week’s rankings, Michigan State could fall as far down as No. 6. If I had to guess, it would go like this:

It’s hard to imagine where the Bearcats fit in amongst this mess, especially after almost losing to Tulsa. They could fit in at No. 5, moving both Michigan State and Michigan down, or No. 7, effectively down from last week. This could also be far off.

In an Athletic report with insight into the rankings’ committee and their selection process, one aspect mentioned is that the field is redrawn every week. Rather than a fluid week-to-week ranking, it’s more accurate to say it’s a complete re-ranking each week.

Michigan State, Michigan, and Ohio State still have their biggest games to play, but the Buckeyes look beatable this year. Both Michigan and Michigan State have a shot, but not if the Spartans don’t clean up their disastrous defense.

After a loss to Purdue, Michigan State’s path to the Big Ten championship became more obvious: beat Ohio State and you’re in. Win out and you’re in. Three Big Ten East teams still have everything in front of them and it will be exciting to find out where Michigan State lands on Tuesday night.