Michigan State basketball’s potential path to an NCAA Tournament berth

Riding a two-game winning streak and heading into a huge battle with Ohio State on Thursday night, what’s Michigan State basketball’s path to the tourney?

With a huge upset victory against fifth-ranked Illinois on Tuesday evening, Michigan State is trying to make a miraculous charge toward being on the right side of the NCAA tournament bubble come Selection Sunday. That all-important date is a shade over two weeks away. Beating Illinois looks tremendous on their NCAA tourney resume yet the Spartans can’t afford to get comfortable as it’s clear that there still is plenty of work left to be done.

Their schedule is setting them up for several chances to win a few more games which would allow them to stand out in the eyes of the selection committee as March Madness quickly approaches. They have a critical ten-day stretch beginning on Thursday when they play five games during that time period.

Six Big Ten teams are locks at this point for the “Big Dance.” They are (in order from the top on down) Michigan, Illinois, Ohio State, Iowa, Purdue (that inexplicable loss at home to the Boilermakers stings to this day) and Wisconsin.

The true jostling will occur among a cluster of five teams who are in the middle of the pack at the moment. No team in this particular group has more than 14 wins and none of them have fewer than nine losses (they all have losing records in conference play too). Those squads include (from seventh to eleventh in the race to the finish line) Maryland, Rutgers, Indiana, Michigan State, and Minnesota. The Spartans play two teams in this batch — Maryland followed by Indiana. Indiana is out for revenge and Maryland is trying to solidify their case to the committee members so the Terrapins will undoubtedly come out swinging. These are must-win games, no ifs, ands or buts about it.

At this point, Penn State, Northwestern and Nebraska are at the bottom of the Big Ten and this trio of foes is not in consideration for postseason ball.

Michigan State plays Ohio State once and Michigan twice (as a matter of fact they play their in-state rivals back-to-back to close out the regular season). If they can win one or two of those three games vs. the Buckeyes and Wolverines and make some noise in the Big Ten tournament (which is set to take place on March 10), they should have be in a favorable spot to make the field of 68 NCAA tournament teams. What would make any of these prospective wins even more impressive is that both OSU and Michigan are top-five nationally ranked opponents.

Finishing the year with between 17 and 19 wins in the toughest conference in all of college basketball warrants placement onto an NCAA tournament bracket line.

Granted, they shouldn’t have put themselves into a do-or-die position with poor play during the middle weeks of the season but there are very few programs across the college hoops landscape that are as tough as Michigan State each and every March. If I were a gambling man, I wouldn’t bet against Izzo this time of year.