Michigan State Football Mailbag: What are Spartans’ Big Ten title odds?

After a big win over Northwestern, Michigan State football has raised a number of questions heading into Week 5. Let’s dive into this week’s mailbag.

Michigan State silenced some of the doubters in Week 4 after posting a 31-10 road win over Northwestern and there’s still a long way to go, but there’s still hope for a trip to Indianapolis.

Fans are trapped between cautiously optimistic and “bring on the kool-aid” mindsets after the 21-point victory but the toughest stretch of football is forthcoming.

Let’s dive into this week’s mailbag following a Northwestern win.

I think the up-tempo offense is something that Michigan State needs to employ more strictly because it wears down opposing defenses while also maintaining momentum. In three of the four games to start the year, the Spartans worked quickly and scored on their opening drive, but then they dialed it down and worked mostly out of a huddle. Brian Lewerke likes the up-tempo play and it’s clear that it works. This scheme will most definitely fit into most games and I’d be shocked if the staff didn’t utilize it extensively. It works and the offense is built for it.

Let’s start off by saying both are terrifying players. I’d say each is scary in their own way, but it all comes down to strengths of the defense. Are you more worried about Michigan State stopping an elite running back, which it has done before, or rather a strong-armed passer? The Spartans are elite against the run, but Jonathan Taylor is a different beast and he showed that against Michigan, but the Spartans’ front is much stronger than the Wolverines this year. And Justin Fields has played well this season but hasn’t really played an elite defense.

Right now, both scare me, but Taylor just has a different feel about him. This secondary shut down Dwayne Haskins last season and I think he’s a better pure passer than Fields. I give the nod to Taylor by a hair.

There’s no doubt the Northwestern win restored some hope. Michigan State went on the road and dominated a team that was expected to contend in the West, but the Wildcats have no offense to speak of. But after watching this team bounce back from a tough Arizona State loss like it never happened, ideally the Spartans would go 8-0 through the rest of the season and finish 11-1. Is that likely? No. So a realistic expectation after that win over the Wildcats would probably be 9-3 or 10-2 with 2-3 wins against the likes of Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin and Penn State.

Michigan State has a strong run defense, for sure, and that could be bad news for Wisconsin as it will be relying heavily on Taylor when the Spartans come to town. I do believe Michigan State is the one team in the conference that would have the most success in stopping him (or at least slowing him down). Making the Badgers rely more on Jack Coan would be a good thing because he doesn’t have a ton of meaningful pass attempts (16) against quality teams.

Short answer: no. There’s more to a game than a few targets of Josh Butler. The senior cornerback has actually played well this season and no one is truly giving him the benefit of the doubt. There’s a reason teams aren’t throwing the ball down the field much and it’s because Josiah Scott and Butler have rarely gotten beat. The one time Butler did get beat was in a critical situation against Arizona State, so it was magnified. He needs to work on turning his head when the ball is in the air, but other than that, he’s usually step-for-step with his receiver.

Does Butler get targeted a lot? Yes, because Scott is an all-conference corner. And to be honest, Butler is doing a solid job with the workload. His only “mistake” against Northwestern was actually the wrong call by the referees as his receiver dragged him to the ground because he knew he had no chance of making a catch on perfect coverage. It was flagged for defensive pass interference, but the replay doesn’t lie. Kalon Gervin will get his chance to start next year, but Butler has been solid.

I don’t see this happening. Matt Seybert has just been put on scholarship and I doubt Mark Dantonio is ready to hand him the No. 1 job at tight end. He’s playing great football, don’t get me wrong, and it’s been a while since the Spartans have had a sure-handed tight end like him, but Matt Dotson’s upside along with decent production this season will secure his spot. It’s not bad to have a two-tight end system (splitting time) with Seybert and Dotson, however.

If the offense establishes consistency and the defense remains its dominant self, all Michigan State would have to do is average around 20-25 points per game and Indy is a real possibility. Let’s say the offense does that, I’d put the chances at around 35-40 percent. But if it remains the same up-and-down offense we’ve seen through four weeks, it’s more like two percent.

What has to happen for the Spartans to get to Indy? Honestly, winning three of the four games against Penn State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan will be the most important. And losing no other trap games because the Big Ten East champ will likely have just one loss. Losing to Wisconsin would be best-case out of the four because then MSU will have the tie-breaker over the rest of the East.

Honestly, I would be surprised if we saw him play this season. This isn’t me with any inside information, but the fact that he hasn’t been on the depth chart at all and the staff continues to say they’re monitoring him is not a good sign. Back problems can sometimes end careers and Cole Chewins seems to be haunted by his injury. It’s possible the staff knew he likely wouldn’t be able to play this season or maybe they’re holding him out until the home stretch. Either way, there’s no current timetable and it’ll be a pleasant surprise if he does return in 2019.

Check back in next week for the post-Indiana version of our weekly mailbag and keep the questions coming.