Michigan State Basketball: Has Tom Izzo lost his touch?
By Ian Olsen
Although his all-time numbers and accomplishments are irrefutable, has Tom Izzo lost his golden touch with Michigan State basketball?
Sports media yearn to publish commentative rankings arranging players or coaches or teams in subjective order, the more debatable the better. It’s just fun. Opinions vary widely, but certain members of the rankings become standard without room for discussion.
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View enough rankings of college basketball coaches and one pattern becomes clear: Sports pundits adore Tom Izzo. The Michigan State coach is at or toward the top of every coaches ranking – both current and all-time.
But after having two championship-caliber teams in three seasons fail to escape week one of the tournament, the question surfaces:
Is Tom Izzo overrated?
Izzo has irrefutably built a program to atop the Big Ten. But the other locks on best-coaches rankings are not Big Ten coaches, and thus don’t regularly face the same competition. Rather than comparing total numbers, perhaps more reliable is measuring coaches’ records against one another.
A couple of those top-10 locks are Roy Williams and Mike Krzyzewski, against whom Izzo posts 1-7 and 1-11 records, respectively. Izzo’s coaching defeat by veteran Jim Boeheim was his fifth loss to Boeheim in six tries.
Izzo has a winning record against every Big Ten opponent. But the only other consensus-elite Big Ten coach over most of Izzo’s tenure was Bo Ryan, against whom Izzo posted a 12-16 record despite having more talent to utilize.
And though the Big Ten is typically deep with solid teams, how elite is it? Michigan State was the last Big Ten team to win a national championship, now 18 years ago.
As rankings of teams fluctuate year-to-year, how quickly and how considerably should rankings of coaches fluctuate? Should these rankings be based primarily on history or determined by who is most effective now?
Conditions change – and have drastically over Izzo’s 23 years. Our new one-and-done era opposes Izzo’s tradition of four-year player development. How well has he adjusted? Recruiting-wise, poorly. Izzo consistently loses recruiting wars targeting five-star recruits, landing some, but typically striking out, including tussles for Cliff Alexander, Tyus Jones, Jahlil Okafor, Tyler Ulis, Jabari Parker, Josh Jackson, and yes, Caleb Swanigan.
In the cases he has landed five-star recruits, how well has Izzo utilized them? While he has enabled some to showcase their talent, like Gary Harris and Miles Bridges, other cases have fallen flat. A game after Deyonta Davis sealed the 2016 Big Ten Tournament by blocking Purdue’s final shot attempt, Michigan State lost to Middle Tennessee after Izzo pulled the freshman shot-blocker in crunch time. And puzzled onlookers witnessed Michigan State fall to Syracuse in March while the ultra-talented freshman Jaren Jackson Jr. sat the bench.
It has at times proved fruitless, but would it be foolish for Izzo to stop seeking top recruits? After going all-chips-in on McDonald’s All-Americans in 2014, the flop resulted in plan-c recruits and almost snapped Izzo’s tournament streak in 2017. Watching the 2018 recruiting class’s five 4-star recruits develop over the next four years will provide clarity.
Will Izzo’s steadfast disposition for experience-over-talent break after the Syracuse debacle? After all, some coaches are winning national championships playing freshmen 40 minutes and rarely going seven-deep.
Will he ever implement a zone defense, or will he continue to hint at it while remaining painfully loyal to man-to-man? Will he ever double-team a dominating big man, or will he continue to manufacture excuses why he doesn’t?
While Izzo’s stubbornness has undoubtedly cost games, it may be the ultimate reason behind his perennial success.
His accomplishments are irrefutable. He is 574-225 overall and 272-122 in the Big Ten. He has won eight Big Ten regular season titles, made seven Final Fours, and won a national championship. His players consistently progress over their Spartan careers. His teams develop cohesiveness and finish profoundly improved from how they start. His second and fourth-round tournament success shows his ability to quickly implement game plans with new scouting reports.
If Nick Ward returns, the time to adopt a play-the-best-player mentality will be next season. Ward’s meager 18 minutes may not have hurt this year, but it would next year.
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Professional players are voted all-stars and MVPs before aging, losing their step, and becoming benchwarmers. Can a similar process happen to coaches? Could it be happening to the legendary Izzo?
Time will tell.