Michigan State basketball has noticeable frontcourt advantage vs. Kansas
By Adam Zdroik
Kansas seems like an easy team to pick against Michigan State basketball, but it’d be wise to look at a big advantage the Spartans have in the frontcourt.
Based on seeding alone, not many are giving Michigan State basketball a true chance in the round of 32 against Kansas, outside of actual Spartan fans.
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The Spartans opened as eight-point underdogs and it’s hard to see that number changing all that much. But there are plenty of reasons why MSU should keep Kansas within arm’s length and it’s not just because Tom Izzo and his coaches are great at short preparation.
The first reasons are mostly due to how Kansas has played this season. The Jayhawks rank as the 27th-luckiest team in the country according to KenPom, which is one of the highest marks among tournament teams. Most of that is due to the incredible number of close games they’ve had this season. Eleven of their 16 Big 12 wins came by seven points or less, so that seems extremely relevant given the spread.
The other reasons have to do with Michigan State and how it will have a noticeable edge in the frontcourt. While the Jayhawks have one of the best backcourts in the nation, they’ve struggled all season against any team with a viable big man. Josh Jackson plays at the four so he’s technically in the frontcourt, but listed at 207 pounds, that’s not a whole lot for a ‘big’ and that’s even smaller than what Michigan State puts on the court.
Some of the best examples for KU’s big man struggles came against Texas and freshman Jarrett Allen. In two losses against Kansas, Allen dropped 42 points and 30 rebounds. Physically, Allen isn’t that much different than Ward outside of a few more inches. Johnathan Motley and Terry Maston had similar success for Baylor and the same could be said for DJ Johnson and Dean Wade of Kansas State. The obvious issue is that Kansas won all of those games despite giving up large totals to the opposing frontcourt.
But what Michigan State fans know is that when Nick Ward has success, so too does the team. And that isn’t seen solely in the box score as Ward is the best in the nation at drawing fouls (8.9 drawn per 40 minutes). The big man did whatever he wanted against a taller frontcourt in Miami, finishing with 19 points on 8-of-9 shooting with seven rebounds. Landen Lucas and Carlton Bragg may have a few inches on him, but neither of those guys has much length and that should help Ward. Lucas is a senior and has plenty experience, but again, hasn’t been an elite defender by any means.
In addition to Ward, Miles Bridges will have a plus-matchup against Jackson. The KU freshman may have the athleticism and better ability to get to the hoop, but Bridges could be fed in the post more often than fans are used to seeing.
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If Ward and Bridges can both win battles in the paint, it will be difficult for the Jayhawks to run away with an easy win. Sure, they have a great backcourt and will probably run circles around the likes of Cassius Winston and Matt McQuaid, but with MSU’s two best players having good matchups on the offensive end, one has to think that the Spartans will keep the score close, at a minimum.