Spartan Avenue
Fansided

Michigan State Basketball: All signs point to NCAA tourney berth

By Adam Zdroik

Feb 14, 2017; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo reacts to a play during the first half against the Ohio State Buckeyes at the Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 14, 2017; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo reacts to a play during the first half against the Ohio State Buckeyes at the Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports /
facebooktwitterreddit

As long as Michigan State basketball doesn’t take a turn for the worst, it will be headed to its 20th straight NCAA Tournament.

Let’s get this out of the way: Michigan State doesn’t need to beat Purdue on Saturday. Sure, a win would be nice, but a loss won’t hurt MSU’s resume at all. And considering how the last game went between these teams, it’s hard to see the Spartans extracting a win from West Lafayette.

Must Read: MSU Basketball: Report card for Tuesday’s win over Ohio State

The Boilermakers have a large advantage on the boards and that will likely cost Michigan State again with Caleb Swanigan and Isaac Haas leading the way.

With a loss, the Spartans will be 16-11 heading into the final two weeks of the season and may only be favored in one game of their last four. I know I’ve said not to worry about MSU’s tournament chances for a while now and that was always with the assumption it’d win at least one of the final three games. I pointed out that the road games at Nebraska, Michigan and Illinois would be the most important ones with the best chances of winning and that remains the case.

While the Spartans could beat Wisconsin, a loss at Illinois in the following game would throw that win down the drain. And with losses to both Purdue and Wisconsin, that road game at Illinois could turn into a must-win, unless they plan on winning at Maryland in the regular season finale.

The goal has always been at least 18 wins and right now, it looks good, especially with the Big Ten tournament included. And while some are still hoping Michigan State can grab a four-seed in the conference, that may not be for the best.

For example, MSU could get the double-bye, but then face five-seeded Northwestern in its first game. A loss in that game could be everything for NCAA Tournament chances. While the double-bye is great in theory, it would also take the chances of getting a win against a team like Ohio State, Illinois or Nebraska off the table.

Obviously, if they get a five-seed and lose that first game, then all hope could be lost, as well

As for seeding in the Big Dance, the Spartans are still in a decent position for a 10-seed, and maybe even nine-seed at the moment.

I’ve suggested in the past that getting an eight or nine-seed would be unfortunate because of having to face a one-seed in the first round, but as it stands, that may not be the worst thing. There isn’t a huge difference between the top tier of teams. Outside of having to face a team like North Carolina in the second round or even Louisville, given MSU’s turnover problems, there aren’t many teams that the Spartans should be afraid of.

Keep in mind, this team already played the likes of Baylor and Arizona close. And while Villanova and Kansas are good teams, neither have the size that would give Michigan State problems like Purdue does.

A lot of the bubble seeding will depend on how the committee views the ACC because so many of those teams have quality wins due to playing an elite team almost every other game. But compared with bubble teams in other conferences, the committee would be hard-pressed to put teams like California, Arkansas or Seton Hall above Michigan State.

With that, a 10-seed is most likely for now as long as the Spartans can get two more wins in the regular season and then at least one in the Big Ten tournament. Getting into eight and nine-seed territory would require three more wins in the regular season and two in the conference tourney. A seven-seed seems unreachable, but wins against Nebraska, Wisconsin and Illinois would be a good start and then reaching the Big Ten tournament title game would be the next goal.

Related Story: MSU Basketball: 5 bold predictions for February

If you don’t believe, look at the current possible seven seeds at the Bracket Matrix, ranging from St. Mary’s and SMU to Northwestern, Minnesota and USC. While little separates the top 20 or 25 teams in the country, there isn’t much that separates the rest of the teams after them and that’s a main reason a seven-seed is possible. But does that matter? Getting a 10-seed and facing seven-seeded SMU sounds great for any Michigan State fan. But advancing past that is another question in itself.

And if you want to see my full bracket, go here.

Home/Spartans Basketball