Michigan State vs Nebraska: Using history to predict the future

No matter the case over the last few seasons, Nebraska has had Michigan State’s number on the basketball court — can the Spartans find a way to upend that trend?

The Michigan State vs Nebraska was always going to be difficult for the Spartans no matter what each of these teams did throughout the season. Part of that is because this game sits between two contests with Michigan on the schedule. The other part is that MSU has had issues with the Cornhuskers the last few seasons.

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It’s easy to remember one or two losses, but Nebraska has won three straight in this matchup with two of those coming in East Lansing. It doesn’t help that the Huskers are coming off a huge 83-80 win over Purdue to gain some confidence following a five-game losing streak.

So what does Michigan State have to do differently in order to win this game in Lincoln and better its chances at an NCAA tournament bid? Let’s take a look at those last few losses.

2016: Michigan State had the clearly superior team that finished 29-6, but lost unexplainably to Nebraska, a non-tournament team, in the Breslin Center. The Spartans played well, shooting 11-of-18 from deep, while also getting 21 combined points from Deyonta Davis and Matt Costello. They were leading for the first 30 minutes of the game, but a cold streak did them in. Nebraska went on a 13-0 run with about 10 minutes to go and never looked back. The issue was Shavon Shields and Glynn Watson doing whatever they wanted offensively to score a combined 41 points. Shields didn’t make a three, but was 12-of-17 from the field as MSU had no answers for him.

2015: This one was a struggle from the start as Nebraska had a 14-point lead at half time. While it finished 79-77, it was never that close. The Spartans didn’t do any specific thing wrong as they grabbed an incredible 24 offensive boards and did enough on that end. The issue was Terran Petteway and Shields, who combined for 53 points. As a team, the Huskers were 29-of-37 from the free-throw line and even though a lot of that came at the end of the game, their ability to draw fouls was a major factor. Like in the above game, MSU could not defend Nebraska’s play-making guards. This all happened with stretch big man Walter Pitchford getting hurt early in the game and playing only four minutes.

2014: This was another interesting loss in East Lansing as Michigan State was again one of the better teams in the nation. The Spartans led early, but Nebraska took the lead with about five minutes to go in the first half and MSU never came back.

This time, MSU’s offense struggled en route to a 60-51 loss. Neither Gary Harris nor Travis Trice could catch fire as the team was 5-of-24 from three-point range and Adreian Payne and Denzel Valentine managed a combined 15 points. Once again, it was Petteway doing whatever he wanted offensively for 23 points while the aforementioned Pitchford had 18 points with four made threes. While Nebraska made more threes in this game, it was still the playmaking of Petteway and Shields that won the game.

The problem for Michigan State is that Nebraska once again has those playmaking guards in Watson and Tai Webster, who played more of a backup role, but was still a factor in those previous wins. To go with that, the Huskers have another stretch big man in Jack McVeigh, who had 21 points in the Purdue win and has four made threes in two of the last three games.

Given the above information, it’s easy to see how Nebraska can make this four-straight wins in the series under Tim Miles. But the path for a Spartans victory is there.

Miles Bridges’s athleticism could be a problem for McVeigh as long as Bridges doesn’t help too much defensively. It wouldn’t be surprising if the lengthy Alvin Ellis III also guarded McVeigh, as Ellis did a great job on Zak Irvin against Michigan. However, the biggest edge could be with Nick Ward. The key for Ward is that Nebraska doesn’t use its big guys (Michael Jacobson and Jordy Tshimanga) all that much on the offensive end. Ward hasn’t played as much in recent outings because he hasn’t been boxing out or playing good defense. That could change in this one. That said, Caleb Swanigan was often double teamed by this Nebraska defense and only managed 14 points as the Boilermakers focused on shooting threes while Swanigan soaked up defenders. Unfortunately, Ward doesn’t have that vision to find open shooters in his repertoire… and he was sick early in the week.

The more important factor may be how Michigan State defends Webster and Watson. If the MSU guards allow those two room to drive to the paint, then it’ll be another long game. The path for success is there for Bridges and Ward, but if the Spartans don’t show up defensively, it may not matter.

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