Michigan State vs. Duke: Final Four Preview, Prediction
Michigan State is in the midst of the most improbable Final Four run in the history of the program and Tom Izzo has proven all doubters wrong — for the time being. I say for the time being because it’s only a matter of days before those doubters come back out and say MSU has no chance of beating the Duke Blue Devils on Saturday evening.
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Izzo is in the middle of his seventh Final Four run while Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski has just won his 12th regional title. These two guys are considered two of the best coaches in the game today and may very well be ranked No. 1 (Coach K) and No. 2 (Izzo), respectively.
Prior to the tournament, it seemed apparent that Duke would have a clear path to the Final Four and maybe even have a relatively easy one to the national title game. Many college basketball fans are hoping for a Duke-Kentucky final, but the Big Ten Conference has something to say about that.
Michigan State had up-and-down campaign, going 27-11 before the Final Four, while the Blue Devils had an impressive one throughout, going 33-4 before the national semifinal.
What to watch for
Mar 20, 2015; Charlotte, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils center Jahlil Okafor (15) celebrates with Duke Blue Devils guard Matt Jones (13) after a dunk during the second half against the Robert Morris Colonials in the second round of the 2015 NCAA Tournament at Time Warner Cable Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Jahlil Okafor is college basketball’s best big man, averaging 17.7 points and 9.0 rebounds while also recording an impressive 1.4 blocks. Duke has been graced by the center’s soft touch around the rim, shooting an absurd 67 percent from the field. The only weakness Okafor has is his free throw shooting ability, shooting just 51 percent from the line.
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If Michigan State can put some bodies on Okafor without getting into foul trouble, even doubling down in the post with a guard, the Spartans could shut down the best weapon Duke has.
That’s not Duke’s only star, however, as point guard Tyus Jones is also one of the best in the country, averaging 11.6 points, 5.7 assists and 3.5 rebounds per contest.
Not many guards can engineer an offense like Jones and it’s hard to stop an offensive leader like him. Look out for freshman wing man Justise Winslow — 12.5 points, 6.3 rebounds and 42 percent from three-point range — as well as Quinn Cook who is second on the team with 15.5 points per game as well as three point percentage (40 percent).
On the Michigan State side, Travis Trice will be relied upon heavily to score big points and stick with Duke’s Jones. Trice has averaged 19.7 points and 4.0 assists per game during the tournament and 15.3 points with 5.2 assists for the year.
Mar 29, 2015; Syracuse, NY, USA; Michigan State Spartans guard Travis Trice (20) brings the ball up court against Louisville Cardinals guard Terry Rozier (0) during the second half in the finals of the east regional of the 2015 NCAA Tournament at Carrier Dome. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
He has the ability to put up 25 points and seven assists in a good game, but will need to be his best self in order for the Spartans to upset the No. 1 seed Blue Devils.
When:
Saturday, April 4 at 6:09 p.m. on TBS
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Ind.
While Trice will need to be on his game for the Spartans to win, it will really need to be guys like Branden Dawson, Gavin Schilling, Matt Costello and Marvin Clark Jr. who have to step up to shut down Okafor in the post.
If those guys can stay out of foul trouble while stifling the talented center, Michigan State will have more than a shot to win this one and head to the national title game.
Prediction
Michigan State has had the most impressive run of any team in the tourney thus far and has taken down the No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seed in its bracket to reach the Final Four. Duke hasn’t had an easy road, however, facing San Diego State, Utah and a tough Gonzaga squad.
Duke’s road hasn’t really prepared it for a team like Michigan State while Michigan State’s road has somewhat helped with the Duke matchup as Montrezl Harrell can be dominating in the post like Okafor.
However, Okafor will be getting a lot of calls in the post and the Spartans will be in foul trouble early. Reversely, the Spartans will struggle to get the calls and when they do, they will have a tough time making foul shots.
This one will be much closer than people think, but I think Duke will have the refs on its side early and often as foul problems will doom Michigan State.
Michigan State 64, Duke 67