Michigan State Basketball: Fans can relax about NCAA Tournament

Michigan State basketball fans can relax after the Spartans have won two straight, but what does that mean for their NCAA Tournament future?

It was only a week ago that Spartans fans had the NIT in sight for a team that had lost three straight. Of course, those fans were misled, but now after two wins in which the Spartans were favorites, the theme has changed. But what did those two wins actually mean?

Must Read: MSU Basketball: 10 bold predictions for 2016-17 season

Well, if Michigan State had lost, that obviously wouldn’t have helped. But in all, beating a mediocre Michigan team at home and a team with a losing record on the road didn’t change much. While I pointed out the Nebraska game as being relevant, it was in terms of making the NCAA Tournament, not bettering its seed.

Yet, losing at Michigan next game would take away that Nebraska win. But again, even with a loss to the Wolverines, MSU is still in line for at least 18 wins and that’s before the Big Ten tournament.

Three of MSU’s next five games are at home against weaker teams in Iowa, Ohio State and Nebraska. That should be 17 wins right there with three more 50-50 games (at Michigan, vs. Wisconsin, at Illinois). So as I’ve been saying for… the entire season, not making the tournament is going to take some bad losses, which the Spartans don’t have.

Now we can get back to determining what seed Michigan State has a chance at. If it wins out… hah, just kidding. With the projected 18 wins, the Spartans should be around a nine or 10-seed. If they can win their next three, which is possible, that could push them to an eight-seed or better with a 17-9 record.

While they would be on a five-game winning streak, not having a ‘great’ win still hurts them. Winning at Purdue may seem impossible, but Wisconsin could be a top-10 win by the time that game comes around and with a win at Illinois, MSU would be looking at 20 wins and a seven-seed.

The best thing for now is that the teams around the same level of Michigan State aren’t doing much better. Minnesota is falling apart, Marquette has lost two since taking down Villanova, Arkansas almost has the same resume as MSU (outside of having more easy wins), VCU is plagued by a mediocre schedule, Iowa State could finish with more losses than MSU and then there’s still the ACC teams. Georgia Tech has great wins, but it should be at fault for early losses to Penn State and Ohio, as well as by 17 points to Georgia at home. The same can be said for Clemson, even if the Tigers don’t have a truly bad loss.

The question will be what the committee decides to do with those ACC teams, but as long as the Spartans have 18 wins, they will be fine. They are coming off arguably one of their best performances this season and if they can keep that going, a six- or seven-seed are realistic possibilities. For now, a nine-seed will do for a team with nine losses.

Also, I wouldn’t put too much into the bigger national bracket predictions. This bracket had Michigan State out completely after the Purdue loss, but after two mediocre wins is suddenly a 10-seed. Maybe my tweets questioning the logic worked. This bracket has also been slightly confusing. After winning at Minnesota back in December, the Spartans were a 12-seed, but then a home win over Northwestern put them on the nine-seed line and that’s where they’ve stayed for the past month.

Related Story: MSU Recruiting: 5 reasons MSU lands Brian Bowen

And if you don’t trust me, check out the Bracket Matrix and that usually has a good basis of where any team stands.