Losing to UCLA on Friday night was worst-case scenario for Tom Izzo and Michigan State entering the NCAA Tournament because it put their 2-seed at risk.
The Spartans may very well hold on to that 2-seed when the Selection Show airs, but it’s going to be much more of a sweat for Izzo’s team on Sunday night. If they had beaten UCLA on Friday, that would have likely locked up that 2-seed, but instead, they’re going to have to hope the selection committee favors them over an Illinois, Iowa State, and Purdue.
There’s going to be plenty of debate heading into Sunday’s Selection Show but I don’t believe that UCLA loss is going to weigh too heavily on the committee’s minds.
It’s going to be an interesting Selection Sunday for Michigan State.
Did the UCLA loss drop Michigan State a seed line?
Some experts and bracketologists projected that Michigan State would drop to a 3-seed to make room for a team like Purdue on the 2-line after the Boilermakers just made a run to the Big Ten title game after beating Northwestern, Nebraska, and UCLA. A win over Michigan might just switch the Spartans and Boilermakers on the seed list.
However, Michigan State won that head-to-head matchup against Purdue in West Lafayette just two weeks ago and the Boilermakers’ finish to the season likely eliminated them from 2-seed consideration. They’re making things interesting with this Big Ten Tournament title run but I still think Michigan State is comfortably ahead of them and Illinois.
Iowa State likely rose up to a 2-seed with the Spartans, UConn, and Houston. Florida likely remains on that 1-line despite the blowout loss to Vanderbilt, and Arizona, Michigan, and Duke are all locked into the ones.
It would be a shock to see Michigan State fall from that 2-line, but it’s all going to depend on how the committee views this Purdue run in the Big Ten Tournament.
I have a hard time believing that the 7-seed in the Big Ten Tournament would jump the 3-seed for making it two rounds further in a meaningless conference tourney.
I firmly believe that Michigan State is a 2-seed on Sunday night despite that UCLA loss.