A 2-seed is up for grabs on Sunday evening as the Selection Show approaches, and Michigan State is hoping that it did just enough to capture that last spot on the 2-line.
Unfortunately, Purdue making it to the Big Ten Tournament title game isn’t going to help as Michigan State is already teetering on the 3-line with Iowa State and the Boilermakers breathing down the Spartans’ neck.
A win for Purdue over Michigan on Sunday might just seal the Boilermakers into a 2-seed, but I have a hard time believing that they would move up two entire lines during the Big Ten Tournament considering it hasn’t had much of an affect on seeding usually. It’s possible, but I feel like that would be an egregious jump considering how bad the Boilermakers were in the final month of the regular season.
I think Michigan State should be locked into a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament, regardless of what happens between Purdue and Michigan.
Making the case for Michigan State as a 2-seed
Yes, Michigan State has a worse loss than Purdue as well as Illinois, but the Spartans hold the head-to-head advantage over both — and the Purdue win was at Mackey Arena two weeks ago.
Here’s how Michigan State’s resume compares to the rest of the 2-seed options:
Team | Record | Strength of schedule | Quad 1 wins | vs. Top 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Michigan State | 25-7 | 14 | 9 | 5-4 |
Purdue | 26-8* | 13 | 10 | 5-4 |
Iowa State | 27-7 | 38 | 8 | 5-4 |
Illinois | 24-8 | 15 | 7 | 5-6 |
Vanderbilt | 26-7 | 19 | 10 | 4-3 |
Michigan State compares favorably to all of those potential 2-seeds, and I believe all of them are fighting for two spots. Houston and UConn have both locked up 2-seeds, in my opinion.
I think Illinois has to be a 3-seed, and I think the influx of Vanderbilt love is a prime “prisoner of the moment” example. The Commodores beat projected 1-seed Florida in the SEC Tournament, but lost in the title game to Arkansas — a team that Michigan State beat this season.
In my opinion, the final two 2-seeds are between Michigan State, Purdue, and Iowa State, and I think the Spartans have to be ahead of Purdue. The Boilermakers lost the head-to-head two weeks ago and, to me, that should be the decider. At some point the head-to-head has to count for something.
Based on resumes being almost identical and Michigan State winning the head-to-head, the Spartans deserve that final 2-seed after Iowa State takes the third.